NFL nut Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) runs the rule over best bets from Sunday's Week 12 action.
Six Teams to Score a Field Goal
A bit of a deviation from my normal type of selections but I think there is value to be found in the field goal markets this week. The games in question are: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints, and Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots.
All six teams are averaging 1.60 made field goals per-game in 2019, with Tampa and New Orleans averaging 2.10 and 2.00 per-game respectively. Similarly, over the last three games, five of those six teams have surpassed their average (Atlanta, the exception, still averaging more than 1.00 per-game).
If we look closer at the individual kickers, then there is even more reason for optimism as all six kickers are making 0.73% of their kicks and above.
Nick Folk (NE), leads the pack having not missed a kick yet, however, his sample size is much smaller, having only played in the last two games. Still, making 5/5 kicks will build confidence going forward.
Younghoe Koo (ATL) is another who is relatively new to the league, making 7/8 kicks for an 88% completion rate. They both benefit from an offence capable of putting them in range frequently, so expect those numbers to shoot up over the coming weeks.
Matt Gay (TB) – 20/23 (87%) and Will Lutz (NO) – 21/25 (84%) are both putting up very good numbers and will be odds on to have multiple opportunities to add to their tallies this week.
It’s a bit of a jump to the remaining two, with Joey Slye (CAR) making 17/23 (74%) and Brett Maher (DAL) making 16/22 (73%). That said, 73-74% still puts the odds in our favour if we look at the average attempts per game, so I’m not concerned by the slightly lower completion rate.
The market is best priced on Sky Bet under the Both Teams To Score A Field Goal” market. Individually, they are priced at; TB @ ATL – 30/100, CAR @ NO – 2/5 and DAL @ NE – 2/5. As a treble, that makes for an enticing price of 6/4, which is what I’d recommend.
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders | Sunday 24th November 2019, 18:00
New York Jets TE Ryan Griffin has his reception line set at 2.5 this week by Sky Bet, with 5/6 available on both the over and under. Through 10 games this season he has been targeted 30 times and catching 25 of those throws, meaning the bookies are spot on with his line this week.
That said, there seems to be no consideration for his opponent this week, the Oakland Raiders, who rank 28th against tight ends this year. The only time Griffin faced a worse passing defence, the 29th ranked Dallas Cowboys, he went 3/3 and brought home a touchdown.
Through 10 games, Oakland have allowed 80 pass attempts to tight ends, 48 of them being caught for 571 yards and seven TD’s.
The match-up couldn’t come much sweeter for Griffin, who’s chances are also aided by the fact Chris Herndon, #1 TE on the NYJ depth chart, was officially played on the season ending injury list. While Herndon never got going this season, it now gives piece of mind to Griffin who will be the big target through the middle.
Given the above, I’m also backing Griffin to exceed his yardage line set at 28.5 yards, as well as his 2.5 reception line.
Both Teams To Score A Field Goal: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints, and Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots (6/4 Sky Bet)
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders – Ryan Griffin Over 2.5 Receptions (5/6 Sky Bet)
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders – Ryan Griffin Over 28.5 Yards (5/6 Sky Bet)