NFL: Go hunting with Henry on Week 7


NFL nut Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) runs the rule over best bets from Sunday's Week 7 action.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans | Sunday 20th October 2019, 21:05

The 2-4 LA Chargers travel to the Tennessee Titans in the hope of ending their downswing and trying to get back in contention in a division where the top team has just lost their starting QB for a number of weeks (KC Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes).

They’re coming up against a Titans team that has decided to bench its former #2 overall draft pick, Marcus Mariota, in favour of the underwhelming, ex Miami Dolphin, Ryan Tannehill. It’s a very bold move for the Titans, and while Mariota was on a short leash, benching him for a QB with no realistic long-term future doesn’t seem like the correct, long term play.

The Chargers recently got back star RB Melvin Gordon, but he has underwhelmed in his 2 games back as he adjusts back up to speed with the game. However, Gordon demands touches, and a game where they could potentially take advantage of the QB change and get out to an early lead means the passing game may suffer as a result. This is where I think the player prop market may have some value.

TE Hunter Henry has his line set at 52.5 yards and I believe he may struggle to hit that target. His line is most likely inflated given last weeks explosion but I’m happy to bet that was a one off rather than a sign of things to come.

With the Chargers not short of offensive playmakers; Gordon and Ekeler in the running game and Allen and Williams in the air, I can see Henry struggling to receiver much attention. Back the under, best priced at 5/6 on Sky Bet.

Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons | Sunday 20th October 2019, 18:00

This write up may seem eerily like last weeks. It may seem lazy, but everything I said still applies, and while he’s got a hot hand, I’m happy to back him each week.

Austin Hooper, after an 8 catch performance with a TD against the Cardinals last week, is now the leagues #1 ranked TE. He churned out 117 yards in that game, yet despite a likely shootout-esq match against this weeks’ opponents – the LA Rams – his game lines are much the same as they were seven days ago.

Through six games, Hooper has been targeted 9, 6, 7, 11, 9 and 8 times in each game week. Last week he had a perfect target-reception rate, the 2nd time this season he has caught every ball thrown his way.

Last week Sky Bet were 1/1 for Hooper to catch over 5.5 balls. This week, they’re 11/10 for the same number. While the opponent certainly isn’t as bad as the Cardinals were at covering the pass down the middle, the Rams will have their focus out wide on Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.

Helping our case further, is the injuries the Rams are suffering. They’ve lost SS John Johnson and CB Aquib Talib to injury and traded away Marcus Peters to the Ravens. While they have just acquired one of the league’s best corners, Jalen Ramsey, he’s only had two days of practice to lean the scheme, and he will be on the outside on almost every play, giving Hooper a bigger mismatch in the centre.

Austin Hooper has hit this line every week, and I don’t see that stopping this week. Back him to have over 5.5 receptions, 11/10 on Sky Bet.

Best Bets

Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans – Hunter Henry Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (5/6 Sky Bet)

Los Angeles Rams @ Atlanta Falcons – Austin Hooper Over 5.5 Receptions (11/10 Sky Bet)

About Author

As a journalism student consumed by sports on a daily basis, being paid to write about them would be the dream upon graduating (assuming I don’t get scouted last minute to play for Barcelona). I’m Scottish born and proudly support the national team, as well as Chelsea and the Chicago Bears. My family are all massive Rangers fans - regardless of what division they wake up in. I’ve started using statistics and data to make selections, rather than my gut. American Football is what I specialise in, and thankfully for me, it is a massively data-driven sport. Everything from pass completion to weather forecasts are taken into account. My love for numbers comes from my interest in poker. I play regularly online and at casinos, and every decision made requires thought into percentages and odds. Although there is an element of luck, it showed me that grasping an understanding of mathematics could prove to be very profitable.

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