NFL: Dolphins can keep Steelers in-check on Monday night

NFL expert Tom Selwyn (@Tom_Selwyn) shares his expert opinion on the best bets available from Monday Night Football in Pittsburgh.

Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Tuesday 29th October 2019, 01:15 | Sky Sports

I can’t remember exactly what the rules are when it comes to flexing games out of the televised slots, but this match-up feels like it should have been given how woeful the Miami Dolphins have been and how uninspiring the Pittsburgh Steelers are playing on offense. Regardless, Miami and Pittsburgh are what we have for this Monday night game.

As patronising as it sounds, the Dolphins have actually been playing a lot better on both sides of the ball of late, with blowout losses turning into close losses. I certainly don’t think that a 2-4 Steelers team that’s starting a QB in Mason Rudolph that doesn’t seem to be able to throw more than 10 yards downfield deserves to be a two touchdown favourite against them.

Yes, Pittsburgh’s defence is pretty good – especially against weaker offenses – but I’ll still be backing Miami +14.5 (20/23 Ladbrokes) in this one.

The Dolphins have changed their QBs more times than I can remember this season, but appear to settled (for now..) on Ryan Fitzpatrick over Josh Rosen. In terms of winning games, I think this is the right decision as Fitzpatrick copes a lot better with a poor OL than Rosen appears able to at this stage in his career.

Fitzpatrick came in at the start of the 4th Quarter against the Redskins two weeks ago and almost led the Dolphins to a comeback win. He followed that up with an admirable performance on the road in Buffalo against one of the league’s best defences. I think he’ll be able to make a couple of plays against Pittsburgh too.

The other reason I like Miami with a 2 TD head start is how Pittsburgh’s offense has performed this season – they really haven’t been explosive in any way and are the joint third-worst team in both big passes (over 25 yards) and runs (over 10 yards).

It’s potentially how the attack has been designed since Ben Roethlisberger went out, in an effort to help their inexperienced passers, but it hinders their ability to pull away from teams and with Miami playing better recently, it could be a closer game than the handicap suggests.