NFL nut Kyle Brown (@Kyleianbrown) runs the rule over best bets from Sunday's Week 11 action.
New York Jets @ Washington Redskins | Sunday 17th November 2019, 18:00
The underwhelming New York Jets got back to winning ways last week against cross-town rivals the New York Giants. Their season was derailed following QB Sam Darnold being diagnosed with mono, however their 2-7 season record is perhaps not a real indicator of the ability that the team possesses.
Their opponents, the Washington Redskins, have been plagued with a lack of identity and a failure to stick with the one QB. Rookie Dwayne Haskins will take the lead against the Jets, but in three appearances this season he has yet to throw for a touchdown and has four interceptions to his name.
Considering the Redskins lone win this season came against the tanking Miami Dolphins, it’s hard to see them coming away with this match with a victory.
Jets, to my surprise, are underdogs, best priced at 23/20 on Bet365.
The only factor going against them in this match-up, I believe, is the fact they are the away side. Seemingly every other variable point towards a Jets win.
Offensively they are just as bad as each other, being ranked 30th and 32nd respectively in total yards per-game. But consider the fact those facts are a little skewed by the three games that the Jets played with their third-string QB and then you can maybe make the case that the Jets would be further up the table.
On the flip side, the Jets are ranked second against the run (81.9 yards per-game) and the Redskins are 28th (136.0 yards per-game). This is where the game will be won and lost.
The Jets have an all-purpose running back in Le’veon Bell that will cause havoc against the ‘Skins defence. But with the better QB, the Redskins would be naïve to focus all their efforts into stuffing the run. Darnold can be equally as efficient in the air.
Back the Jets to win (23/20 Bet365), my NAP of the week.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens | Sunday 17th November 2019, 18:00
MVP candidate Lamar Jackson is coming off a big game against divisional rivals the Cincinnati Bengals. He’s proven this season he can throw the ball just as well as he can run it.
In nine games this season, he has a 65.9% completion rate – 7.7% up on last year – 15 TD’s compared to last seasons six, and a QB rating of 101.7 compared with 2018’s 84.5. In almost every area, Jackson has made strides of improvement.
You can get him NOT to throw an interception at odds of 5/6 against the Houston Texans this week. He has five to his name in nine games, which doesn’t sound great, however, all five of them came in a two-week stretch (two against Cleveland in Week 4 and three against Pittsburgh in Week 5). He hasn’t thrown any interceptions in his last four weeks, despite that run including the New England Patirots and the Seattle Seahawks – two of the toughest defences he will face this season.
5/6 represents great value against a Houston defence that is ranked just 29th against the pass (277.3 yards per-game). With star DE J.J. Watt out for the season, Jackson will be under even less pressure than usual, so will have more time to pick and choose his passes, and less need to try make the riskier long pass.