NFL nut Kyle Robins (@AhhYeahKyleYeah) shares his expert opinion on the best bets in the ante-post Passing Yards markets ahead of 2019/20.
NFL 2019/20: Passing
The most pivotal position in the NFL is of course that of the quarterback. And when it comes to the markets revolving around it, there are an awful lot of statistics to consider.
First, and most obviously, I’ll generally look to one of the league’s elite signal callers, who run in a high-powered passing offense. Secondly, I’ll certainly be looking for someone with a high number of attempts/completions, who runs in an elevated percentage of passing plays over rushing.
Now, having taken this into account, it whittles down to just a few players. Last year’s leading passer Ben Roethlisberger, who totalled 5,129 yards is currently best priced 10/1 with Boylesports, whilst the MVP of last season Patrick Mahomes, who finished second to Big Ben currently leads the market at a price of 5/1 with Red Zone.
Both those are certainly worthy candidates to take home the passing title this year, and I could make cases for either of them, along with a few others. But instead of boring you with those statistics, I’ll instead dig into those of my pick for this market: Falcons quarterback, Matt Ryan.
Now I’m putting aside my Carolina bias when making this decision, and fully ignoring my hatred for Ryan. The Atlanta signal caller finished off last term with 4,924 yards, sitting just behind both Roethlisberger and Mahomes. He has the benefit of working in a system that ran passing plays 65% of the time last year (third most), and the luxury of a man who can pretty much catch anything in Julio Jones.
Add to that Calvin Ridley, Mohammed Sanu, Austin Hooper and Devonte Freeman out of the backfield, the Falcons have an abundance of weapons as well as a solid offensive line to protect Ryan.
Now the Falcons did struggle for consistency last year, in part down to injuries, but Ryan will be reunited this term with former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. A man with who he finished top five in the NFL Passing yards during their three-season tenure together (2012-2014).
Given all of this, and my hunch the Falcons will just be a more consistent offensive team this year, the 11/2 with Red Zone looks the best bet to take right now. With Mahomes obviously a close second, purely down to his unbelievable ability to get the ball downfield.
Speaking of Patrick Mahomes, he leads me onto the next market involving the quarterback position. The Chiefs man threw for an unprecedented 50 touchdowns last season, a feat only ever accomplished by future hall of famers Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.
Given his outstanding playmaking ability, field vision and cannon arm, at this moment in time, it’s hard to see anyone outperforming the young star in terms of touchdown passes. Whilst his price may be short at just 3/1 with Paddy Power, I can’t see any other avenue to head down in this market.
NFL 2019/20 – Most Passing Yards: Matt Ryan (11/2 Red Zone)
NFL 2019/20 – Most Passing Touchdowns: Patrick Mahomes (3/1 Paddy Power)