ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Newport entertain Brighton in the FA Cup League on Sunday.
Newport vs Brighton | Sunday 10th January 2021, 19:45 | BT Sport
Brighton make the trip across to South Wales to face high-flying League Two side Newport County. The Exiles are prone to a giant killing at this stage of the competition, beating Leeds and Leicester in recent years.
The last time The Seagulls reached the FA Cup final, back in 1983, they were relegated from the First Division in the same season, proving that perhaps a cup run isn’t what Graham Potter desires. They were knocked out by Sheffield Wednesday this time last year and Michael Flynn will be reminding his Newport side that they have a huge chance here, especially if Graham Potter opts to shuffle his pack.
With no Tariq Lamptey, Danny Welbeck or Aaron Connnolly, Brighton will be a bit depleted when they travel to Newport. Adam Lallana and Steven Alzate also didn’t train on Thursday due to illnesses. That’s meant Percy Tau, the South African, has returned from years on loan in Belgium, and he is available for selection.
Taking into consideration Brighton’s situation, it would be very strange to not see Potter rotate. The core of his squad that he calls upon have played virtually every minute over a packed Christmas schedule and that may see him ring the changes.
Newport players have expressed that they are fired up for this game against Premier League opposition. They’ll be excited to take on a Brighton side who haven’t won in 8, winning just 1/16. They’ll be full of confidence.
Given Newport have only lost one of their last 10 FA Cup ties I think they have a great chance of a scalp here. Brighton’s form is truly shocking, so I’ll take the League Two side on the +1 Asian Handicap at 39/40 with Bet365. This will be a winner if they win or draw, with the added security of a refunded stake if they lost be 1. We lose our money if The Exiles lose by 2 or more. Newport double chance also looks good at 8/5.
I also like both teams to score at 17/20 with William Hill. Newport have seen BTTS cop in 12 of their last 15 matches in all competitions and haven’t failed to find the net since 6 October in the Football League Trophy. Their attacking metrics are impressive in League Two this season, as they are second for shots taken (15.4 per game), having on average 53.1% possession (2nd) and an xG of 1.42 which is the 5th best.
Brighton themselves have also seen goals flow in their games. 71% of their matches have seen both teams score, and 11 of their last 15 in the Premier League. The goals they conceded against Wolves were defensively very poor, from leaving Roman Saiss for a free header, to needless and a needless challenge from Dan Burn to give away a penalty.
So from both sides last 15 games, we have a sample size of 30, with BTTS landing in 77% of these matches. These two have met three times in the FA Cup prior to Sunday evening’s clash, albeit decades ago, and BTTS copped in all 3.
I also fancy Newport to take aim and hit a few shots. SkyBet offer 11/10 on 10+ and 15/8 on 11+, I’ll take both, here’s why:
- Newport have hit 10+ shot in 26/29 games this season (90%)
- Newport have hit 11+ shots in 24/29 games this season (83%)
- Newport average 15.4 shots per game in League Two.
- Brighton have conceded 11+ shots in their last 3 games, and 6 of last 9.
- Brighton may shuffle their pack and rest their most reliable defenders.
Best Bets
Newport vs Brighton – Newport +1 Asian Handicap (39/40 Bet365)
Newport vs Brighton – Both Teams to Score (17/20 William Hill)
Newport vs Brighton – Newport 10+ Shots (11/10 SkyBet)
Newport vs Brighton – Newport 11+ Shots (15/8 SkyBet)
