Newcastle vs Brighton | Sunday 20th September 2020, 14:00 | Sky Sports
Steve Bruce meets Graham Potter with Newcastle hosting Brighton on Sunday afternoon, a side the Magpies have not beaten at St. James’ Park since they were promoted automatically together from the Championship in 2016/17. The last six encounters between the two have all seen Under 2.5 goals, so do not expect a thriller.
The duo were on the end of positive and negative two-goal deficits on gameweek one with the Seagulls coming out on the wrong end despite creating the better chances against Chelsea. A frustrating theme for a Brighton fan in the Potter era has been how often they relinquish opportunities to score, they must be more ruthless if they are to realise their potential.
Last time out
Newcastle stole the plaudits beating West Ham 2-0. Callum Wilson opened his account for the club on his debut and Bruce will be hoping he has bought guaranteed goals with the striker having already scored 42 goals in the division for Bournemouth.
Jeff Hendrick, who signed on a free from Burnley, also bagged a debut goal, rifling in from outside the box to cap off a very successful evening in the capital.
Brighton definitely do not recruit Premier League proven players, looking into the data and analytics to pinpoint targets that can step up to their challenge, like Belgian winger Leandro Trossard who scored the equaliser in their last outing.
Potter’s men won the shot count and Expected Goals (xG) battle against Chelsea but were unable to penetrate the backline, with their final ball and some rookie defending letting them down. If they can take the positives from it and prepare well for this match, I make them favourites.
The betting angles
The last three identical meetings brought Under 1.5 Goals and that looks on the cards again. With Brighton’s lack of cutting edge and the Magpies defensive set-up under Bruce, a double of Under 2.5 Goals and Under 1.5 First-Half Goals is a recommended punt at 27/25 with Betway, and the other angle is getting onside with Brighton.
The Seasiders ended up 14th in the xG table for last season compared to rock bottom for Newcastle, proving how often they are stronger in chance creation and allowing fewer opportunities against them.
Nineteen-year-old left wing back Tariq Lamptey was outstanding against Chelsea and if he can provide such an outlet coming up against attacking left back Jamal Lewis, the Seagulls should produce some end product.
Brighton have won two and drawn four in being unbeaten versus Newcastle since promotion to the English top-flight, expect them to extend that run. The hosts are evens (888) in the Draw No Bet market.