PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a look at Tuesday night's tussle between Newcastle and Burnley.
Newcastle v Burnley | Tuesday 26th February 2019, 20:00 | BT Sport
These two sides may both occupy spots in the bottom seven but they are two of the most in-form teams in the top-flight, with just one defeat between them in their last 10 matches.
Newcastle have enjoyed three victories in their last five matches, with Manchester City among their victims, while Burnley are actually unbeaten in eight Premier League encounters, with a victory against Tottenham and a draw at Old Trafford in that sample.
The form of strikers Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes (Wood has six goals across those matches and Barnes five) and the return of Tom Heaton to the Clarets goal have been fundamental to this upturn in performances and results for Sean Dyche's charges.
There are a few angles that I considered here. Firstly, while I don’t expect Newcastle to go down, I think their recent upturn in fortunes is slightly overstated. Two of their three victories came at home to Huddersfield and Cardiff (and the former had 10 men for 90 minutes) and while the City victory looks excellent, as a neutral it felt like the Citizens complacency was ultimately their undoing.
However, I don’t like opposing Rafa Benitez in theses types of matches so will avoid backing the Lancastrians in the Draw No Bet market. I also had a look as Mssrs Wood and Barnes in the Anytime Goalscorer markets but while the 5/2 did appeal, ultimately I think you will get a bigger price on the exchange in the hour before kick-off.
Instead, it is ‘No’ in the Both Teams To Score market that gets my vote. BetVictor offer 17/20 on such a bet, which suggests that there is a 54% chance of it obliging. However, if you look at Newcastle’s home record against sides outside the Big Six, seven of their nine Premier League matches this season have seen such a bet reward punters.
Moreover, since their return to the Premier League last season, 17 of the Toon's 22 games (77%) against sides from seventh down at St James’ Park have seen at least one side fail to find the net. In this same time period against this same group of sides, 13 of Burnley’s 23 away matches (57%) have also seen a no option in the both teams to score market obliging.
Price-wise, if you can get Wood or Barnes at 3/1 anywhere then definitely take it, but in terms of selections, I will simply recommend backing a pretty dull encounter at St James’ Park.
Best Bets
Newcastle v Burnley – Both Teams To Score: No (17/20 BetVictor)
