NFL boff Kyle Robins (@AhhYeahKyleYeah) returns to cover Monday Night Football as the Giants travel to the 49ers.
New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers | Tuesday 01:15| Sky Sports 1
Week 10 commences with the absolute must watch under the lights, Monday night spectacle, contest between Eli Manning & Nick Mullens!!!
Now, as exciting as this game is bound to be, it just hasn’t quite reached the level of star viewing to stay up for. However, that certainty doesn’t mean there aren’t betting angles to be had, and I think I might have found a few.
Last week, the unheard of, unthought of rookie Nick Mullens started at quarterback for the 49ers, only to have the glory of being verified on twitter half way through his NFL Debut. (Probably more of an achievement than the win). Whilst it was certainly special, and a fairy-tale story in itself, the defence he went up against in the Oakland Raiders are by far the worst unit in the league, with players seemingly lacking effort or even giving up at particular points in their 34-3 loss.
Mullens threw for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns on just 22 attempts against the Raiders. But make no mistake about it, those Raiders defenders minds were already on where they’ll be sipping cocktails from January.
The Giants, whilst their record is almost as abysmal as that of Oakland, they’re far more talented on both sides of the ball. They’re pretty stiff against the pass, allowing an average of 244 passing yards per game, which is a part reason behind the market I’m leaning towards. Nick Mullens over/under is currently set at 225.5, and given the Giants 9th ranked pass defence, things won’t be given as easy as they were last week for Mullens.
The Giants have held opposing quarterbacks under 225.5 on 50% of their games thus far, and it’s fair to say, some of those were far more accomplished quarterbacks than Mullens is. I feel safe taking the under at 5/6 with SkyBet.
Considering Mullens will be task with throwing the ball a bit more this week, against what looks set to be a tighter encounter, he isn’t exactly blessed with the most blistering passing attack. Outside of tight end George Kittle, the 49ers receiving core consists of the boom or bust Marquise Goodwin, and lowly targeted Trent Taylor & Kendrick Bourne.
Yeah, not exactly household names, which leads me ever more so towards that man Kittle. Having his line set at 65.5 is rather low, given he’s gone well over that margin on 3 of 4 home games so far this year. Whilst the Giants defend well against the pass overall, they rank 17th against opposing tight ends, so I’ll certainly be looking for Kittle to make another big contribution Monday night. Take the 5/6 with Sky Bet for over 65.5 receiving yards.
Finally, moving away from the over/under markets, and more simply onto the spread, I’ll make this one quick.
The men from Big Blue have had some rather tight loses of late, more so on the road. And whilst this game to go either way, I’m much more confident leaning to the Giants +3.5 and here’s why. New York has covered the spread in each of their last 3 away games, against much tougher opposition than the 49ers.
Whilst questions still remain around his performance levels, Eli Manning is still putting up plenty of yardage, and given the offensive weapons he has compared to those of Nick Mullens, I certainty see the Giants keeping this a close match-up, if not winning it themselves.