TOM SELWYN (@tom_selwyn) returns with a best bet from Monday night's NFL action.
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings | 01:30 Tuesday | Sky Sports 1
Every now and then the NFL throws up a set of truly surprising results/performances, and game Week 3 was one of those.
Given they scored 45, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan really should have hit the passing yardage mark, so that was disappointing. But as Patriots HC Bill Belichick would say: ‘We’re on to Minnesota…’
The Vikings looked superb last week, especially on defence, and I do fancy them to cover the handicap against the Giants, but I believe there’s an even better bet at a superior price – the statistics certainly suggest so.
I’m heading to the most turnovers market and I’ll be backing the Giants to have a higher number of giveaways.
Offensively, the numbers are in our favour as the Vikings haven’t actually committed any turnovers whatsoever. In fact, the only Minnesota giveaway so far this season was actually from their own defence after they managed to fumble a recovery they forced!
The Giants on the other hand have given the ball away seven times – three INTs and four lost fumbles.
It’s on the defensive side of the ball where the stats really stack up in our favour, however. The Vikings have five INTs and four fumble recoveries compared the Giants singular fumble recovery.
The Vikings also have considerably more sacks – 15 to the Giants four – which means they generate further chances of fumbles.
So with Minnesota better than New York at both ball security and creating turnovers (the Vikings have a differential of +8, compared to the Giants’ -6), the odds-against price for a statistically favourable bet looks very generous!
I’ll be backing New York Giants to have the Most Turnovers at 11/10 (William Hill) on Monday night.
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings – New York Giants to have the Most Turnovers (11/10 William Hill)