FOOTBALL journalist Adam Goodwin (@AGJournalism) shares his betting thoughts on Monday's Nations League action.
Sweden v Turkey | Monday 10thSeptember 2018, 19:45 | Sky Sports
This will be Sweden’s first Nations League game and Janne Andersson will be looking to get off to a good start. They reached the World Cup Round of 16 this summer and should now look to build on that ahead of Euro 2020.
Turkey faced Russia in their opening game of this tournament and were beaten 2-1 at home by the World Cup quarter-finalists. The Turks dominated possession and had four more shots on-target but were far less clinical than Russia.
Sweden’s home record hasn’t been great over the last few years and the Blue-Yellow have only won one home friendly since the start of 2016 – a 3-0 win over Wales. Five (71%) of those seven games have ended in a draw and 3/7 (43%) concluded 0-0.
Turkey also tend to like a draw and 4/5 (80%) of their friendlies away from home since the start of 2017 have ended in a stalemate. You can back the draw at best price 23/10 with Marathon.
Turkey will also be keen to avoid back-to-back defeats in their group and I’m sure they’d bite your hand off for a point. They’ll want to keep it tight and Sweden’s attack is far from prolific so have a small wager on No Goalscorer at 6/1.
Serbia v Romania | Monday 10thSeptember 2018, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Serbia kicked-off their Nations League with a 1-0 win over Lithuania. It was a pretty unconvincing victory and they’ll be expecting a better performance on Monday night. Dusan Tadic scored and missed a penalty and you’d imagine the former Southampton will be influential again.
Romania also began their Nations League campaign on Friday night and were held to a 0-0 draw at home to Montenegro. It was a game they would’ve been expected to win and their 13 shots off-target might explain why they failed to get a result. It shows that they can certainly create chances but need to improve their finishing if they’re to get a result here.
The Serbs were undefeated at home during their 2018 World Cup qualification campaign, averaging two goals per-game, and have also battered Bolivia 5-1 at home since then. Romania’s away games also tend to have a fair few goals in them, they’ve scored away against Denmark, Italy and Poland in recent years.
I fancy Serbia to win and Over 1.5 Goals which has landed in all of their last five victories at home in friendlies and 2/3 (67%) during World Cup qualification. You can back it at 11/10 with Betfair and I think that’s a decent price.