National League Tips | 23rd February 2016


AFTER a brilliant weekend double Callum Jones (@Goaldust) returns with a midweek Non-League tip he can't resist.

Torquay v Welling | Tuesday 19:45

When 24th v 22nd in the table face off in late February, it normally brings with it an age-old football cliché – a six pointer. This is just that.

While there are, as with every league game, actually only three points available, winning a game like this brings much more than just the physical reward. It can spark a revival.

Torquay looked dead and buried at the turn of the year. Since beating Halifax on the opening day of the season, their record up until Christmas read P21-W1-D8-L12. But fortunes appear to have changed – they’re unbeaten in three in all competitions, and have won three of their last six, all without conceding a goal.

They’re still ten points from safety, but with Kidderminster, Halifax and Southport all coming to town in the weeks following Tuesday’s game, you wouldn’t put it past them to drag themselves back into touch.

While they may be three points better off than their hosts, Welling are arguably in a worse position. Their change in leadership hasn’t brought with it the desired effect, and they haven’t won a league game since October 13th. That was 15 games ago.

There hasn’t been much difference between their home and away form, but they’ve really struggled to score on the road, managing only four in their last seven. Dean Frost’s men have lost four of their last five on their travels to nil, while they’ve only managed to notch more than one goal in 1/15.

Add in the 450 mile round trip to Torquay on a freezing February night, and even the most optimistic of us would struggle to predict the visitors enjoying their evening.

I can’t say I love backing the division’s basement club at odds a smidge under evens, but I still think it represents value in this situation. It’s amazing what back-to-back wins can do for a side when they’re stuck in the mire, and you’d expect the previously beleaguered fan base to be on their game for this one.

It should be tight, but I’ll take Torquay, and also have a couple of quid on them to win and under 2.5 goals at an enhanced price too, with Welling’s toothless strike force in mind.

Best Bets

Torquay v Welling – Torquay to win (19/20 Betfred)

Torquay v Welling – Torquay to win and Under 2.5 Goals (3/1 William Hill)

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