NON-LEAGUE expert Paul Maddison (@LouthBigDog) shares his favourite fancies from Saturday afternoon's coupon.
Braintree v Dover | Saturday 27th October 2018, 15:00
The bottom two of the National League meet in what is a crucial match for both teams if they have any ambition of staying up. A draw won't do either team any favours, so hopefully that will lead to a decent encounter.
The two clubs will also have relatively new managers in the dugout with Andy Hessenthaler recently taking the reigns at Dover, and Hakan Hayrettin currently caretaker boss at Braintree.
Both managers had great results, but also slightly unlucky not to get more in their last league games; Braintree were a 93rd-minute equaliser away from beating league leaders Salford, whereas Dover conceded a 95th-minute leveller against Harrogate.
I think the Hayrettin has got more of a job on his hands here. The Iron have looked the worse side in the league by quite a distance, and BetVictor go just 1/40 for the Essex club to be relegated – to be honest, that's probably a fair price.
Braintree have picked up just a single point at home this season in eight attempts. The one thing they had going for them a few weeks ago was that they weren't conceding too many goals, however, including last weekend’s FA Cup defeat to Barnet, they have conceded 16 goals in their last five outings.
Dover are only one point in front of Braintree but I feel Hessenthaler has a bit more to work with, and now he's had a bit of time with the squad, he should be able to get some improvement out of them.
Athletic haven't been too bad on the road in recent weeks, losing just once in five – and that run includes three draws against decent opposition in Harrogate, Sutton and Chesterfield.
Marathon are going 29/20 for an away win and that looks generous to me.
Dagenham & Redbridge v Harrogate | Saturday 27th October 2018, 15:00
Dagenham & Redbridge’s poor run of form continues. The Daggers have lost their last five league games and are winless in eight in all competitions, and I don't see an improvement in form here as they welcome Harrogate.
After taking a few games to adjust to the division, Harrogate have really settled in. Since mid-September, the visitors have only dropped points to Wrexham, Leyton Orient, Fylde and the shock stalemate a fortnight ago against Dover.
Harrogate’s form away has been particularly impressive, picking up 16 points from a possible 18 in their last six matches. Town have averaged over two goals per-game in that period too.
There's a few bets I fancy here – I can't ignore the evens available with Marathon on a Harrogate win and I'm also going to take the 11/5 with the same firm on the Harrogate/Harrogate in the Half-Time/Full-Time double result.
The Daggers have conceded half of their 24 goals in the first-half and Harrogate have netted five in the first-half of their last four away. The Yorkshire outfit have also scored an incredible eight goals between the 16th and 30th minutes of matches, that's four more than any other team for that time frame.
Salford v Ebbsfleet | Saturday 27th October 2018, 15:00
Things aren't looking too good at Ebbsfleet at the moment with recent reports coming out that their players haven't been paid on-time in seven of the last 10 months, plus the release of both their assistant manager and head coach.
There has been talk of the playing squad needing to be cut too. That probably goes a long way to explain Fleet's less than convincing start to the season – last season’s play-off semi-finalists are in 17th place.
Salford are continuing their good form; they haven't tasted defeat in their last 14 games in all competitions and the Ammies are also joint-top scorers in the league with 32 goals from their 16 games.
The only negative point around Salford at the minute is they're probably conceding more goals than they would like to. They've only kept two clean sheets in eight home games and have conceded goals against Marine, Dover and Braintree in their last three here.
For all of Ebbsfleet’s problems, they do have plenty of threat in front of goal and I'd expect them to get on the scoresheet. You have to go back to the beginning of March to find the last time Ebbsfleet failed to score on their travels.
I'm keen on the 13/5 Bet365 are offering on Salford to win and Both Teams To Score.
Best Bets
Braintree v Dover – Dover to win (29/20 Marathon)
Dagenham & Redbridge v Harrogate – Harrogate to win (1/1 Marathon)
Dagenham & Redbridge v Harrogate – Harrogate/Harrogate (11/5 Marathon)
Salford v Ebbsfleet – Salford to win and Both Teams To Score (13/5 Bet365)
