Napoli vs Lazio Betting Preview: Frantic finale forecast for the San Paolo

CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Serie A's Saturday night showdown between Napoli and Lazio.

Napoli vs Lazio | Saturday 1st August 2020, 19:45 | Premier Sports

Gennaro Gattuso and his Napoli side welcome a Lazio team who’re hoping they can get a result and seize second spot when the final whistle blows on the Serie A season.

Lazio are currently just a point behind Inter Milan, who travel to third-placed Atalanta, and will be hoping their top four rivals play out a draw in order for them to leapfrog the pair into second.

Napoli will finish the season outside of the top six for the first time since 2008-09, as they are guaranteed to finish seventh in the table. It’s been a largely disappointing season for the Partenopei, who’ve lost 12 of their 37 games thus far.

They’ve faltered somewhat at home this season and as a result have just the eighth-best home record in the top flight.

Whilst it may seem that its only Lazio who have anything to play for, Napoli will want to end a below par season on a high note against an opposition who they will no doubt be tussling with for the top six places again next season.

Key stats

Napoli:

Commit on average 11 fouls per game when playing at home (least in the league).
Receive on average 13.1 fouls per game when playing at home.
Have seen 2+ cards in 6/8 home games against sides currently in the top half this season.
In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 7/8 occasions.
Have scored in 7/8 and scores 2+ in 6/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
Have conceded in 6/8 and conceded 2+ in 4/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.

Lazio:

Commit on average 12.8 fouls per game when playing away.
Receive on average 10.9 fouls per game when playing away (second least in the league).
Have seen 2+ cards in 7/8 away games against sides currently in the top half.
In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 7/8 occasions.
Have scored in 7/8 and scored 2+ in 4/8 away games against sides currently in the top half.
Have conceded in 7/8 and conceded 2+ in 2/8 away games against sides currently in the top half.

Key facts:

Napoli have won 49 Serie A games against Lazio – more than any other opponent.
Before losing the reverse fixture back in December, Napoli had won five league games on the bounce against Lazio. The last time the away side did the double over the Partenopei in the same season was in 1993/94.
Napoli have lost only ONCE in their last TEN home games against Lazio.
Napoli have scored at least TWO goals in each of their last EIGHT home games.
Lazio have always lost the last game of their season under Simone Inzaghi, conceding at least THREE goals in each match.
Inzaghi has only won ONE of his SEVEN games against Napoli as a manager (D1, L5).
Napoli’s Jose Callejon has scored SIX goals in 13 appearances against Lazio – more than against any other side.
Ciro Immobile could become only the sixth player, in the 21^st century, to record 36 goals in a single campaign in the top five leagues.

Analysis

The first angle I’m going to take is on Lazio shots. With Ciro Immobile going all out for goals to ensure that he receives the golden boot, as well as adding his name to a coveted list of players to register 36 goals in a single campaign, he’s going to have a pop at goal at any opportunity.

Lazio aren’t ones for registering high numbers in terms of average shots per game but they’re battling it out with Atalanta and Inter for second spot and know only a win will do to get back into second spot.

The line I’m taking is Lazio to have 13+ shots at 11/8 (SkyBet), the same bet is 3/10 on Paddy Power so I think its excellent value.

The second bet I’m gunning for is exactly the same price but I’m favouring the home side here. Despite the fact Napoli have nothing else to really play for, Gattuso is not the kind of character that will allow his players to slack off and take it easy.

A combination of stats have me favouring the home side here. Firstly, Simone Inzaghi has won just once against Napoli as a manager. Secondly, Lazio have never won their final game of a season with Inzaghi in charge. Lastly, Napoli have won more games against Lazio in the league than any other opponent.

I think this bet is somewhat overpriced and should probably be nearer to 5/6 in my opinion.

Napoli have scored at least twice in their last EIGHT home games, meanwhile over 2.5 goals has landed in SIX of Lazio’s last SEVEN away games.

So my second bet is going to be a betbuilder on Bet365 of Over 2.5 Goals and Napoli Double Chance at 11/8.