JACK Wright's (@JackWright_BSB) oversees Sunday night's showdown from Serie A as Napoli take on Inter Milan.
Napoli vs Inter Milan | Sunday 18th April 2021, 19:45 | Premier Sports
Sunday’s Serie A menu arguably saves the best until last, as champions-elect Inter Milan and Champions League-chasing Napoli do battle at Stadio Diego Maradona, with both sides in scintillating form, in a game I dearly would like to find an angle for the home side purely to pull out my favourite We Love Betting GIF!
Given Napoli’s recent form you would think there is no need for a crowbar given they got back on track with their pursuit of a Serie A top-four place with a 2-0 victory at Sampdoria last time out, and have won six of their last eight SA matches (W6, D1, L1) with six of those fixtures producing the same Half-Time/Full-Time result, which is also true for 20 of their 30 league games this season and four of the last six competitive head to heads.
However, their opponents are in pursuit of their own Italian top flight record of consecutive wins (17) having rattled off 11 straight W’s and were victorious in the reverse fixture thanks to a Romelu Lukaku spot kick and have now won each of their three Serie A games against Napoli under Antonio Conte, including a victory in their last league game here – which ended a crazy winless streak of 13 games in Naples.
Going in to the weekend, Internazionale have an eleven-point lead at the head of Serie A as they look to secure their first Scudetto since 2010 needing just 13 points to mathematically secure the title with eight games remaining.
Given his future at the Partenopei is still unsure – Max Alegri is strongly linked to take over ahead of next season – Gennaro Gattuso battles old rivals Inter knowing his lowest points-per-game average as a manager (0.17) has come against the Nerazzurri and yet to earn a point against his former team mate Conte.
I can’t resist taking an Inter side at odds against, who despite finishing bottom of their UCL group, have been streets ahead of their domestic rivals – Novibet go best price at 6/4 although 11/8 is widely available.
Napoli were reduced to 10 men in the aforementioned clash at the San Siro after Lorenzo Insigne protestations at the award of the match winning penalty and there was a further eight yellow cards flashed by Davide Massa.
Given the magnitude of this game, the managers involved and that both these sides are still fiercely determined to achieve their goals we should expect a similarly ferocious encounter in this latest edition.
Although today’s official Daniele Doveri is no Massa, averaging just 3.87 cards per game and is yet to give any player their marching orders in comparison to 4.75 with two reds – he does give me enough confidence to delve in to the cards market here.
The head-to-head prior to the last one also saw five cards with just the four in this clash last season – all for Inter and the last time Signor Doveri took charge of a Napoli fixture he produced five cards, two for the Azzurri with three for opponents Juventus in a similarly large encounter.
My temptation was to go for Inter to collect the most booking points with odds of 10/11 but with Napoli’s history of red cards in this clash – they have three in the last seven meetings – I am instead siding with the safer option of over 4.5 cards in the match at 11/10 with Bet 365.
Napoli vs Inter Milan – Inter Milan to win (6/4 Novibet)
Napoli vs Inter Milan – Over 4.5 card in the match (11/10 Bet 365)