Celta Vigo vs Sevilla | Monday 12th April 2021, 20:00 | La Liga TV
La Liga’s Monday night offering takes us to Pontevedra on the west coast of Spain, as mid-table Celta Vigo host the side occupying the last Champions League qualification position – Sevilla.
Mixed form makes calling the winner of this one quite tricky, La Celeste may not have won any of their last three but have only been defeated once in their last five and that was at the hands of in-form Real Madrid.
Los Nervionenses beat league leaders Atletico Madrid 1-0 last weekend as part of a five-game unbeaten run, but haven't won any of their last four away games.
With those statistics in mind that should keep the game close and competitive enough to allow my selected bet to run a true course – a bet that the result of this doesn’t impact.
With the appointment of referee Alejandro José Hernández Hernández, my eyes were automatically drawn towards the cards markets.
Senor Hernández has the second highest average yellow card average in La Liga – where the competition for top card happy ref is fierce – with his 76 yellows from 14 top flight appearances appointments working out at 5.43 cards per game.
The 38-year-old whistle blower from good old Lanzarote, showed three yellows and a red on his international “break” taking charge of Norway v Turkey with his last domestic appointment saw him flash his card on 10 separate occasions with surprisingly Elche taking seven of those on their visit to Getafe.
He is yet to take charge of a Vigo game this season and both times being the man in the middle for Sevilla was at their home stadium.
Celta sit third overall in the table showing for collection of most booking points in each game – securing more than their opponents in 15 of 29 overall (53%), they remain third when taking only home games in to account however the percentage rises to 57% with eight of their 14 games seeing them pick up more than their visitors.
The key stat which really made this my bet of the day however, is Sevilla's numbers.
The Sevillistas have lost the card count more than any other La Liga side, collecting more booking points than their rivals just five times in 29 games (17%) – away from the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium this has only happened twice from their 14 road trips, just 14%.
So, with odds of even money available with Sky Bet for Celta Vigo to have more booking points, implying a 50% chance, it appears we have a fair dollop of value on our side.
Celta Vigo vs Sevilla – Celta Vigo most booking points (1/1 SkyBet)