JACK Wright's (@JackWright_BSB) Bet of the Day continues on Saturday as we head to the League Two play-off final…
Morecambe vs Newport | Monday 31st May 2021, 15:00
For the last Bet of the Day, we focus on the League Two play-off final which also brings the curtain down on the EFL season with an intriguing battle at Wembley.
How did both sides get here? Well other than the usual season of blood, sweat and tears, most recently Morecambe got the better of Tranmere with a 1-1 second leg home draw securing a 3-2 aggregate win, whereas Newport almost blew a 2-0 first leg lead over Forest Green, losing the second leg 4-3 after extra time with Nicky Maynard’s 119th minute strike ultimately proving enough to seal their place for a day out at Wembley and a chance to secure English third tier football for the first time since 1987.
I am backing Michael Flynn’s side to come out on top and adding a little juice to the bet in an attempt to end with a very nice priced winner – here are my reasons why.
Newport won both fixtures between the two sides during the regular season, although it must be noted Morecambe had a man sent off in both matches with the scores tied at 1-1.
However, digging a little deeper to try work out who will come out on top in this final match of such a long, gruelilng campaign I looked in to the results both these sides had when taking on the best in the division in the regular season.
The Exiles have by far the better record picking up 20 points from those 12 games against the three clubs automatically promoted (Cheltenham, Cambridge and Bolton) as well as the other three play-off contenders – winning half including as already mentioned both fixtures against their opponents at Wembley.
In contrast it must be a worry for Derek Adams that his side lost seven of their 12 clashes picking up just 11 points and shipping 20 goals in the process – as well of course knowing they are yet to get the better of their final rivals of the season.
However, I can’t resist a bigger play here by including goals in to the equation with, as previously mentioned when putting forward Morecambe in a former bet of the day selection, they average third highest for the number of goals per game in the regular season with 2.76.
The Shrimpers recorded the second highest number of games achieving both over 2.5 goals (57%) and both teams scoring (61%) with Newport registering the third highest number of away games with both teams scoring (65%) – crucially of course both head to heads in regular season saw the Welsh side win 2-1 and 3-1.
Morecambe certainly know their way to goal, hitting the back of the net in 47 of 57 fixtures this season so are more than able to cause Newport problems in London, not forgetting that the side from the North West also finished on place higher and five points better off.
Although a Newport win and both teams to score was a tempting play at odds of 5/1, I am playing it slightly safer to keep a 3-0 or better win to nil onside by putting forward the win with over 2.5 goals – backed through the Goals tab this comes in at 15/4 with Bet 365 however, use the Bet Builder option and this is boosted to 4/1 which looks a very nice price.
Morecambe vs Newport – Newport to win and O2.5 Goals (4/1 Bet 365)