MLS Tips | 16th-17th May 2015


LOOKING for some MLS tips this weekend? Let Will Dyer (@w2Dyer) guide you in the right direction.

Montreal Impact v Real Salt Lake | Saturday 21:00 | Sky Sports 5

I didn’t expect Real to win in Chicago last weekend but they ran out 2-1 victors. All credit to them but I wouldn’t read too much into that as Chicago have lost all five games they’ve played against Western Conference sides.

Real didn’t create many chances and in fact only had two shots on target and whilst they scored both of those, and clinical finishing like that is admired, it won’t happen every time. RSL have scored in just half of their 10 matches so far this season and in just two of their five away games; these tame stats combine to see them average less than a goal per game at the minute.

Joao Plata’s still sidelined with a fractured metatarsal and with Javier Morales missing training in midweek the goal-scoring responsibilities look firmly on Alvaro Saborio’s shoulders.

Montreal have played just five games so far this season due to their heavy involvement in the CONCACAF Champions League. I believe their success in that competition has been hugely overlooked in MLS.

This team made it to the two-legged final of North America’s finest competition, drew 1-1 in the away fixture and even lead at half-time in the 2nd leg against the well-established Mexican giants Club America before finally succumbing to a 5-3 aggregate defeat.

Interestingly 11 of Montreal’s last 12 home wins in all competitions have been to nil and 10 of them were either 1-0 or 2-0 score-lines. They haven’t won a game yet this season so the 7/5 about a home win is pretty unappealing.

If the French Canadians are to win they’re probably going to need to keep a clean sheet and I’m finding the stats on Impact’s wins too good to ignore so I’ll have a dabble on the Correct Score Groups market.

Vancouver Whitecaps v Seattle Sounders | Sunday 00:00

The Pacific North-West derbies just keep coming. Two very well supported clubs square off at BC Place on Saturday night and it looks like the tie of the round. A big part of me wants to tip Seattle to win this as I’m still not convinced by Vancouver.

The Whitecaps find themselves at the top of a hotly contested Western Conference, something I don’t think anyone foresaw. They finished 5th last year and I think they’ll drop down to about that standing after a few more gameweeks. Nevertheless all credit to them for coming up with a few late winners and winning some tough fixtures.

Three of the current Top 4 goalscorers will be on show in this game; Octavio Rivero, Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins and I think this promises to be a high scoring game as a result. Rivero has been a great new addition and everything that Oba and Deuce touch turns to gold.

Over 2.5 Goals trends don’t make particularly great reading with just five of Seattle’s nine and five of Vancouver’s 11 going over so far but those low scoring games have mostly been down to Vancouver and Seattle’s opponents failing to score rather than the other way round.

This is a game between two of the six sides that have scored 14 or more goals this season and for that reason I think Over 2.5 Goals is the bet.

Orlando City v LA Galaxy | Sunday 22:00 | Sky Sports 5

Sunday night’s feature game is a duel between MLS’ most successful side and it’s newest. I’ve happily avoided LA most of this season so far and I’m very glad too. The Galaxy have yet to win an away game this season in five attempts and are languishing in 6th position.

After 11 games, the Orlando City find themselves in a similar place, 7th in the Eastern Conference and yet to win a home game. The East is a weaker division so a meagre nine points from 10 games is pretty dire from the Lions.

OC surrendered a lead in the Capital in midweek to two late goals; suffering a taste of their own medicine that sunk our New England bet last weekend. I want to oppose the Lions again this weekend. I think they’ll be underprepared from the DC game and if LA take the lead I doubt they’ll invite pressure on themselves like Revolution did at the Citrus Bowl last Friday.

Orlando rallied well when two goals down to fight back for a draw against NE Revs by throwing centre back Aurilien Collin up front and lofting balls into the box but their comeback was as much their own doing as it was New England’s naivety in trying to solely defend at 2-0.

LA Galaxy have built a history of success in MLS by closing out games well. I think they’ll score first here and hold on to that lead. Robbie Keane is still out with a groin injury but LA aren’t a one man team. The 13/8 about an away win could look very silly come the final whistle.

Philadelphia Union v DC United | Sunday 23:00

DC’s position at the top of the Eastern Conference is even more impressive when you learn that they are unbeaten in four fixtures against Western Conference sides including a victory over Vancouver, who currently top the West, and a 1-0 home win over the big boys, LA Galaxy.

DC have won three of their last four visits to PPL Park and all of those victories saw them shut out the home side by 1-0 or 2-0 score-lines. Philadelphia have won just one game all season and that was against fellow strugglers New York City FC.

I don’t hold out much hope for Philly here. They have an extremely weak defence that just isn’t good enough at this level and though they look threatening on the break at times it could be a relatively quiet afternoon for DC defence, which is in my opinion the best defense in Major League Soccer.

Best Bets

Montreal Impact v Real Salt Lake – Montreal Impact to win 1-0 or 2-0 (19/5 BetVictor)

Vancouver Whitecaps v Seattle Sounders – Over 2.5 Goals (Evens Paddy Power)

Orlando City v LA Galaxy – LA Galaxy to win (17/10 BetVictor)

Philadelphia Union v DC United – DC United to win (19/10 William Hill)

1-A Piece Refund

Place a Correct Score bet on the Montreal Impact v Real Salt Lake game and if it ends 1-1 Betfred will refund you.

About Author

Will's an avid supporter of his local team, Swindon Town. He got into betting after a serious case of beginners luck landing a 14 fold BTTS accumulator. Whilst mostly transfixed to the English Leagues, he can't get enough of football and can regularly be found watching more obscure matches from around the globe. Will has a growing interest in American Football after watching the Atlanta Falcons in the States a few years ago. Outside of betting he loves nothing more than snowboarding, travelling the world and a weekend with his pals.

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