ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as pre-season favourites Fulham travel to unbeaten Millwall in the Championship on Tuesday.
Millwall vs Fulham | Tuesday 17th August 2021, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Another round of Championship fixtures take place this midweek and pre-season favourites Fulham travel across London to The Den to play Millwall.
Fulham have started very strongly and should be top of the table by points not goal difference, after deserving to beat Middlesbrough on the opening day, comfortably beating them on xG but conceding to the only shot on target on their goal.
Thier main man Aleksandar Mitrovic netted at Huddersfield at the weekend, and he heads into this contest with a good record against the Lions, scoring in his last three games against them.
Fulham face a far more difficult task on Tuesday though as Millwall are an awkward and obdurate team in this division under the astute leadership of Gary Rowett.
All things considered the Cottagers shouldn’t see a draw as the worst result in the world as it is a hard place to visit, especially with their faithful fans back inside. As such I think the draw is a massive runner here despite Fulham’s difference in quality and more technical footballers.
The draw is best price 9/4 but we can get a boost to this price by chucking in Under 2.5 Goals. At 10/3 with Bet365, the jump is too big considering the below data:
- Millwall have drawn 17 games in each of their last two seasons, the most in the league both times.
- Since the start of 2019/20, Millwall have drawn 36/94 (38%) games.
- Across the same sample, 33/94 (35%) saw the Draw and Under 2.5 goals cop.
- Under Rowett’s stewardship, 30/81 (37%) games have ended all square, with 28/81 featuring the Draw and Under 2.5 Goals.
If all but three of their last 36 draws have been either 0-0 or 1-1, the disparity in odds has to be snapped up in my opinion.
Last season, their record against the three promoted sides (Norwich, Watford & Brentford) was W0-D5-L1. All three games at the Den finished either 0-0 or 1-1, and they only conceded two goals to the trio.
Elsewhere, referee Geoff Eltringham has enticed me into the cards market, with the County Durham official starting the season with 9Y and 1R in his two games. I fancy him to dish out at least two cards to the hosts, Millwall, on Tuesday with odds of 20/21 with BetVictor appealing.
In his last 9 games overseeing Fulham in the second tier his record in these games is: 3, 7, 3, 2, 5, 7, 6, 4 and 3 cards, an average of 4.44. What’s interesting is how he has protected the West Londoners, with Fulham’s opponents picking up at least two cards in his last seven games refereeing them.
Millwall have picked up four cards in their first two games, and they will have to deal with the pace and trickery within Fulham’s ranks.