Millwall v Nottingham Forest: Resilient Lions to keep Reds in-check


CHAMPIONSHIP specialist James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) shares his thoughts on Friday night's match-up between Millwall and Nottingham Forest.

Millwall v Nottingham Forest | Friday 6th December 2019, 19:45 | Sky Sports

As we very much enter the football festive season, Millwall and Nottingham Forest present our Friday night viewing from the Championship, and both teams are generally in good form. Millwall have adapted to life well under Gary Rowett, and whilst Forest lost to Cardiff last time out they remain in the play-off positions.

As mentioned, Millwall have looked a good outfit under the stewardship of Rowett, a manager who understands this division inside and out, and better than most. Whilst perhaps not a ‘sexy’ appointment to replace club legend Neil Harris, he has certainly made an impression. A won three, drew two and lost one record reflects that.

It is arguably away from home where he has had the biggest of impacts, and the division to switch to a five-man defence at Swansea paid dividends as they earned a fine 1-0 win; a very rare away triumph for the club at this level. Of course, Friday night is a home encounter, so no five-man defence will be named. They’ll play to win, as they always do at The Den.

Nottingham Forest fell victim to something of a smash-and-grab from Cardiff, now managed by former Millwall boss Harris, last Saturday at a misty City Ground. There won’t be many alarm bells ringing around the club off the back of that however, as it was only their fourth league loss of the campaign, with only West Brom, Leeds and Bristol City losing fewer in the Championship.

Sabri Lamouchi will no doubt be aware of what is to come at The Den on Friday, but they have quite a proud away record that they’re looking to protect. Only Wigan Athletic has defeated them on the road, whilst only top two West Brom and Leeds have more away points than the two-time European Cup winners.

I am often resistant to backing against Millwall at home. Whilst it has a reputation for being a tough place to go because of the crowd etc, the facts and figures ultimately back that up. Rowett if anything has just continued the fine work of his predecessor Harris in that they are anything but a soft touch at home.

Leeds and Preston are among some of the clubs to go to Millwall and lose this season, with only QPR coming away with a win, which came during their purple patch of form.

Yes, Forest are tough to beat away, but there are four draws thrown into that mix as well, whilst four of their five away wins came by a one-goal margin. Forest did smash QPR 4-0 in their most recent away match, but it was 1-0 until the 81st minute and QPR did have a man sent off. Lamouchi will look to keep things tight and they’ve only conceded eight away league goals this season.

Millwall have shipped only nine at home, as well, so this has all the makings of a close contest. Traditionally this has been a difficult venue to go for several clubs but especially Nottingham Forest, who have won on only two 12 visits.

Millwall have scored exactly two in every home game under Rowett, but Forest are an organised unit. There is every chance skipper Michael Dawson will make a return to the backline here just to shore them up even further, especially if big Matt Smith is an anticipated starter for the hosts.

Millwall Double Chance and Under 3 Goals will be our play on the bet-builder at a price of 6/5 (Bet365). 11/19 of Millwall’s matches saw two goals or fewer, whilst it is also 11 for Forest, but out of 18 league matches in their case, and averaging only 2.11 goals, too.

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Millwall v Nottingham Forest – Millwall Double Chance and Under 3 Goals (6/5 Bet365)

About Author

Since leaving university I've worked as a Research/Football Performance/Betting Analyst. I live and breath all things football. This has gradually helped me with my betting when looking for value and ultimately, winning selections. I've experienced both the bad, and more recently, the good supporting Lincoln City, with whom my weekends aren't the same without.

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