JACK LAMBDEN (@_JackL_) shares his views on the best betting opportunities from Tuesday's EFL Coupon.
Millwall v Fulham | Wednesday 12th February 2020, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Fulham make the short midweek trip across London having wiped out an 11 point deficit on the Championship’s automatic promotion spots to now sit behind second placed Leeds on goal difference alone.
There’s no doubting that in shortening that margin, the Whites have been given a helping hand by their promotion rivals from Yorkshire but it is also owing to four wins from fove Championship games and looking back slightly further, the win over Leeds just before Christmas could prove crucial in the always exciting run-in.
Scott Parker had a tough job on his hands to manage an over-inflated squad which performed pretty derisorily in the Premier League last season, spending wisely with the money incurred from the summer departures on talented players with a point to prove such as Michael Hector and Ivan Cavaleiro – both of whom who have been amongst the Cottagers’ best performers since August.
That W4-D1-L0 from five has seen four clean sheets and the only two goals conceded in that run came after propelling themselves into a 3-0 lead against Huddersfield so could well be attributed to the team taking their foot off the gas.
That defensive stability, along with the abundance of midfield and attacking talent Scott Parker has at his disposal, will likely see the current 6/4 price on the Whites achieving promotion fall even further should they enter the top two in the coming weeks having dropped from 3/1 less than a month ago.
Millwall, meanwhile, are having a good season of their own and have certainly enjoyed a resurgence under Gary Rowett’s stewardship. The 45 year-old needed to start well at the Den after failing to make a positive impact in his short stints in charge of Stoke and Derby and it’s safe to say he has done just that.
Having raced into a 2-0 half-time lead at Elland Road a couple of weeks ago, the Lions looked on course to record their eighth win in 14 Championship outings but could not contain a second half onslaught from Marcelo Bielsa’s men and since that defeat, the Londoners haven’t had the same belief about them.
Their direct approach simply didn’t work in such awful weather conditions in the weekend defeat to West Brom who outclassed them for much of the game, losing the contest 2-0 and the shot count 34 to 10.
Although they were dominated, it didn’t come close to probably the most one-sided game of the Championship season which came at Craven Cottage in the reverse of this fixture, a match which saw Fulham run-out 4-0 winners and record 85% possession.
Millwall’s main weapon in this game will be set-pieces but Fulham have conceded the joint fewest goals from dead-ball situations this season (7) so will be confident of handling that threat and playing their own game will the ball at their feet. Based on all of the above, I like the look of not overcomplicating things and going with the Betway price of 8/5 on Fulham to win.
Alexander Mitrovic to score anytime in the game is exactly the same odds, this time with Bet365. Bagging 20 times in a season containing a couple of injury spells is very impressive stuff from the Serbian so I was expecting this price to be shorter.
Mitro has scored 10 times for Fulham on the road this season, a whopping 59% of their away league goals which shows just how dependent on the striker’s form the Whites are.
Mitrovic has scored in both games since his most recent lay-off during January, including the winner in the weekend victory over Blackburn. It’s hard not to back the man who fires in more shots than any other player at this level, is probably the best striker in the country outside the Premier League and scored in the reverse so the 8/5 is my second and final selection.