MILAN meet Napoli in Sunday night's highlight showdown from Serie A. James Potter (@thebettingdesk) oversees the action, picking out his favourite fancies.
Milan vs Napoli | Sunday 14th March 2021, 19:45 | Premier Sports
It should be a cracking game from Italy on Sunday night as Milan and Napoli face off. Both sides come into the match with question marks against them with inconsistent form. Can Milan continue their pursuit of the title and can Napoli sneak into the top-four or will Rino Gattuso lose his job. The pressure is mounting.
Milan started the season undefeated, however, since the turn of the year they have gone W7-D1-L4 keeping just five clean sheets although three of these defeats have come at home to Juve, Inter and Atalanta.
Milan have a home xG of 2.14, which is the highest in the league, they also sit in the top three for shots, shots on target and shots in the box and they have only failed to score in two of their 13 home games. In fact, they have scored Over 1.5+ in eight of their home contests so far.
It’s all very positive on the goal front including players coming back from injury. Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Ante Rebic are still out for AC Milan but Theo Hernandez and Hakan Calhanoglu should be available to start.
Their home games average a huge 3.38 match goals with 46% hitting Over 3.5 Goals.
I am just not sure I can trust Milan to win the match. They were awful when losing 2-0 to Spezia and very average at Verona. However, Napoli look in a mess.
I have Napoli 5th in my away ranking, 6th for away expected points and 6th for away points per game, but that’s where the positives end. W6-D1-L5 isn’t clever for a side with aspirations of Champions League football. Their last eight away games give them a record of W2-D1-L5.
What is more alarming is how open they have become defensively as the season has progressed. In the opening seven games they conceded an average of 6.85 shots and 1.71 shots on target. In the next five games this increases to 12.8 shots and 5.4 shots on target. That is a huge turnaround.
Attack wise they are one of the stronger away sides in the league – xG 1.38, 1.62 goals scored which is the 7th highest in the league and for shots, shots on target and shots in the box they sit 4th, 5th and 3rd, yet their last five away games and seen 22 goals, which is 4.4 goals per game!
Both sides combined have seen 66% of their respective home and away games go over 2.5 goals, failing to score in just four of twenty-five combined games with eight clean sheets between them – six of these have come against the bottom six sides.
Famous last words, but I am not sure I see this ending 0-0. I am keen to get on over 2.5 match goals at this can be backed at 17/20 with William Hill.
I want to get involved in one other bet on this match. I have mentioned how open Napoli have become of late and they have now conceded an average of 2.28 goals in their last 7 away matches, so Milan to score 1.5+ goals appeals.
I am going to go into the corner market and given Milan’s strong home record for corners, add in over 3 Milan corners. They have hit four or more in twelve of thirteen home matches. Milan average of 7.19 corners per home match this season. Napoli have conceded four or more in seven of twelve away games and six each in their last two away games. They concede an average 3.67 over the course of the season, but when visiting to half sides this increases to 4.17
Then I am going to add Over 0 Milan Cards. The hosts average 2.54 cards per home game and have collected at least 1 in all thirteen home matches.
This gives us odds of 12/5 which I think is an excellent bet considering this has landed in eight of Milan’s thirteen (62%) home games.
Best Bets
Milan vs Napoli – Over 2.5 Goals (17/20 William Hill)
Milan vs Napoli – Over 1 Milan Goal, Over 0 Milan Cards and Over 3 Milan Corners (12/5 Bet365)
