Manchester City vs Olympiacos | Tuesday 3rd November 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
The formula used since Pep Guardiola became Manchester City manager four-and-a-half years ago has been fairly simple: backing The Citizens to win 2-1 or 3-1 in the correct score market and generally keeping goals on side.
However, while I don’t want to overlook such a body of evidence (Pep has managed over 200 games at the club now), this City side do not seem as swashbuckling as teams of previous years and do look a little more solid defensively.
City did concede five against Leicester but The Foxes scored three penalties in that game and a couple of other sublime finishes. Since then Pep’s side have conceded just four goals in seven matches. However, they have only managed 13 goals themselves and while a goal average of 1.86 would delight most sides it is well down on what we have come to expect for Pep’s side.
For example, at the weekend against Sheffield United they allowed only three shots (of which one was on target) but only actually generated an xG of 1.9 themselves in a single goal victory.
City’s opponents Olympiacos will not be a pushover. They have won one and lost one in the Champions League to date and actually had more shots, possession and corners in their 2-0 loss to Porto.
Olympiacos are no stranger to English clubs, having faced Tottenham, Arsenal and Wolves last season. Clearly none of those sides are as strong as City but they will surely take confidence from the fact that they knocked Arsenal out of the Europa League, ran Wolves close (losing 2-1 on aggregate) and managed a draw with Spurs. Just two of those six matches saw three goals or more in 90 minutes and Olympiacos only lost one by more than a single goal.
With that in mind, I have two angles of attack: City to win and under 3.5 goals to be scored, which is available at 23/20 with Betway and a small saver on a 3-1 victory for the home side at 11/1 with Bet365. If there are to be more than four goals, this is the only way I see it happening.