Manchester City vs Marseille | Wednesday 9th December 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Last night Twitter was awash with people falling over each other to congratulate themselves on backing RB Leipzig to beat Manchester United. All apparently amazed at how Leipzig were such a price in the first instance. At times like that it is important to remind yourself that bad bets win and good bets lose.
Leipzig might well have been a fantastic price and they did score a couple of early goals. However, over the piece, United had 19 shots to Leipzig’s nine, seven shots on target to their four, more than twice as many corners and won the xG battle. Whether Leipzig deserved to win is debatable but given they had an xG of just 1.9 you have to presume they were a little fortunate to score three goals.
Similarly, Chelsea were unlucky not to win yesterday (and win for our bet) as they had 18 shots to FK Krasnador’s seven and won the xG 2.3-0.4. I was really pleased with my bet yesterday and would place the same bet again. However, earlier in the season I backed Arsenal to beat West Ham and also the 2-1 scoreline.
Both bets obliged but Arsenal were the vastly inferior side that day but somehow the bet obliged. Obviously I was pleased to make profit but in the same way you will have a run of bad luck (when good bets lose) when you have a run of good luck (which may involve a lot of bad bets winning) try not to get ahead of yourself because it will only come back to bite you.
Anyway, I shall be adopting the same track when Manchester City face Marseille. Like Chelsea last night, The Citizens are already qualified for the next stage of The Champions League and face a Marseille team that are hoping to reach the Europa League.
However, the class gap between these two sides is huge, as was proven in City’s 3-0 win in France in their previous encounter. Marseille have only actually managed two goals – both against Olympiakos – in their five games in this group so even if it is a heavily rotated City side, I expect them to have too much.
My first bet here is Ferran Torres at 15/8 in the anytime goalscorer market. The Spaniard has managed three goals in three games in the Champions League this term and is likely to get a start here. With City likely to score a few, that seems like a value proposition to me.
Additionally, I like the look of City to win 3-0 at 8/1 with SkyBet. It was the scoreline in the reverse fixture and I think City look stronger at the back than they have in previous years as is proven by the fact that they have only conceded twice in their last nine matches in all competitions. 3-1 is usually my angle with City but against a shot-shy Marseille I am happy to back them to keep a clean sheet.