Manchester City vs Burnley | Saturday 28th November October 2020, 15:00 | BT Sport
Sean Dyche’s Burnley earnt a vital three points, grinding out a 1-0 victory at home to Crystal Palace on Monday night, however they will struggle to harness that momentum when they travel to Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City.
City fell to a 2-0 defeat at Tottenham last time out, and come into this one looking for their first win since the announcement of Guardiola’s new two-year contract.
It has been a very tough match-up for the visitors in recent years, avoiding defeat would be an outstanding achievement.
The hosts have started the season slowly after having a longer 2019/20 campaign than most of their rivals, playing in the latter stages of the Champions League, they are currently 13th and need to put together a run to push up towards the top four positions, a minimum requirement of their domestic season.
City’s Expected Goals (xG) numbers and rankings are slightly skewed by them having played one game less than a lot of the division. However, one markable improvement and statistic is their defensive numbers, they have the third best xG against total in the division at 10.2, which has seen an upward trajectory since the return to the team of Aymeric Laporte and addition of Ruben Dias.
Burnley, on the other hand, have struggled so far, with their first win of the season coming on Monday, offensive quality or lack of has been their main issue. Dyche’s men are sat in 17th looking over their shoulders, having scored just four goals in eight matches coming from a total of 7.2 xG, ranking them 19th on both metrics.
Reliable players in James Tarkowski and Ben Mee are still present, and remain the club’s best chance of competing in the Premier League. They have limited the opposition to just 9.9 xG in eight games so far, the second best defensive record in the league, though they have played one less than the majority of the division, given how little ball possession they tend to have it is a tremendous effort.
City have won the last six meetings on the bounce to an aggregate score of 23-1. Very dominant, stylistically the hosts just have too much dynamism in attack for Burnley to deal with.
The pace in wide areas, including overloads with the full backs and expert creative midfielders none more effective than Kevin De Bruyne usually overwhelm the Clarets and this fixture could be the same story.
Therefore, I'll have two plays – City to win and Both Teams To Score ‘No' at 27/25 (Novibet) and Man City -2 on the Asian Handicap at 21/25 (Betway).
Manchester City vs Burnley – Manchester City to win and Both Teams to Score ‘No' (27/25 Novibet)
Manchester City vs Burnley – Manchester City -2 Asian Handicap (21/25 Betway)