Liverpool vs Porto | Wednesday 24th November 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
Liverpool find themselves in the enviable position of having secured top spot in their Champions League group with two matches to play. Their opponents tonight, Porto, are part of a three-way fight for second place, so clearly this game is more important for them.
Jurgen Klopp has suggested that he won’t make wholesale changes but I struggle to believe that won’t be the case. Most of his side have recently come back from an international break, there is a tough schedule of matches coming up in December and Liverpool have a thinner squad their closest league competitors, Chelsea and Manchester City.
With changes therefore, likely, I am going to avoid the match prices as I don’t expect a fluent encounter. With BTTS as short as 7/10, I did consider opposing that but have instead chose a couple of card markets.
The first is frequent offender, Pepe. The 38-year-old centre back has received four booking in nine domestic matches this term and up against a mobile Liverpool frontline, I expect him to resort to foul means on occasion, so like the 12/5 with Bet365 on him seeing a card.
Another player I like to be carded is Mateus Uribe at 11/4 with Unibet. He has been booked in two of his three Champions League matches already and with such an accommodating referee – Felix Zwayer averages 5.24 cards per game in Champions League matches (110 cards in 21 matches) – in what is a huge fixture for Porto, I think the Colombian is likely to cross the line at some point.
Liverpool vs Porto – Pepe to be booked (12/5 Bet365)
Liverpool vs Porto – Mateus Uribe to be booked (11/4 Unibet)