PREMIER LEAGUE expert Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) is back to attack Super Sunday's mouthwatering match as Liverpool welcome Manchester City to Anfield.
Liverpool v Manchester City | Sunday 7th October 2018, 16:30 | Sky Sports
At 17/20 with Marathon, I believe Liverpool represent excellent value in the Draw No Bet market. Even ignoring Jurgen Klopp’s excellent record against Pep Guardiola when the two faced each other in the Bundesliga, I believe you can make an excellent case to back the hosts.
With these two managers at the helm, the Reds have faced City at The Etihad on three occasions, and have won every encounter, with 1-0 and 4-3 league victories and a 3-0 Champions League success.
Aside from his positive record against City, in 13 home league matches against the other members of the Big Six since Klopp became Liverpool manager, his side have lost on just one occasion: a 1-0 defeat to Louis Van Gaal’s Manchester United, with the Red Devils scoring through their only shot on-target.
Klopp’s record across those 13 fixtures reads W6-D7-L1 so it is hopefully fairly understandable why I am keeping the draw onside.
Pep Guardiola’s record away to the Big Six is certainly credible, winning six, drawing one and losing four of his 11 league matches. but all things considered I believe the gap in favouritism should be greater than the market currently suggests.
If I was a City fan or backer I would be concerned that Nicolas Otamendi and Aymeric Laporte are likely to start in central defence. The former has bad memories of coming up against Mohamed Salah and I also believe the latter lacks the pace to cope with Liverpool’s front three.
City clearly have a formidable attacking line-up themselves but I feel that Liverpool are better equipped to deal with that threat, and I am placing greater emphasis on home advantage than the market is.
Alternative angles
Elsewhere, I expect both sides to score and think three goals or more is fairly likely but it is the goalscorer market I look to for my second selection.
Salah is 11/8 with Unibet to score at anytime and with odds-on quotes elsewhere, Unibet’s price looks like good value to me.
Much has been made of the Egyptian’s troubles this season but it is worth noting that he has scored in all three of his home league games to date. He also scored in 13 top-flight encounters at Anfield last term and in three of his four matches against Manchester City.
All things considered I believe this is a great price and fully expect him to find the net on Sunday afternoon.
Best Bets
Liverpool v Manchester City – Liverpool draw no bet (17/20 Marathon)
Liverpool v Manchester City – Mohamed Salah to score at anytime (11/8 Unibet)
