ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Leicester entertain West Brom in the Premier League on Thursday.
Leicester vs West Brom | Thursday 22nd April 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
They’ve probably left it too late. They are still incredibly likely to be relegated. But West Brom’s form has been most welcome in the West Midlands.
The Baggies head to Leicester to try and make it three wins on the bounce and continue their survival bid. They’ve scored eight goals in their last two games, against Chelsea and then Southampton.
Leicester on the other hand booked their place in the FA Cup final last weekend and head into this one in full confidence. They’ll have to contend with West Brom’s top goal scorer Matheus Pereira though and the Leicester defence will all have their hands full as he pops up all over the place.
He is 5/1 to find the back of the net at the King Power with Bet365 and it is simply too big. Rival firms go as low as 5/2 here. he has three goals in his last two games, scoring a penalty last time out against Southampton.
He is on set pieces which is always a bonus and is their top goal scorer. I’m not sure why he is as big as 5/1 given his ability. The 50/1 on him scoring a double is a massive price too, and I’ve taken that as well.
The reverse leg on the opening weekend saw The Foxes despatch West Brom 3-0 after two Jamie Vardy penalties. Leicester dominated that day and notably there was only one card a piece. I’m hoping Thursday sees a similar pattern on the cards front.
I’ll have a go at Leicester +0.5 on the Asian Card Handicap on Bet365, under the cards tab. It lands if Leicester have more cards than West Brom, or equal for that matter. 4/5 looks generous, I was expecting the line to be at +0 in all honesty.
- Leicester have had equal or more cards than their opponents in 20/31 (65%)
- West Brom’s opponents have had equal or more cards in 19/31 (61%)
- As visitors, West Brom have seen this bet land in 10/15
- Odds of 4/5 reflect a winning probability of 56%
- Referee Andy Madley hasn’t given Leicester opponents more cards in 2/2 of his Foxes games this season.
I wouldn’t expect a whole host of cards here, one or two if any, but this line essentially gives us two scenarios in the card match bet.
Best Bets
Leicester vs West Brom – Matheus Pereira to score anytime (5/1 Bet365)
Leicester vs West Brom – Leicester +0.5 Asian Card Handicap (4/5 Bet365)
