Leicester vs Southampton | Saturday 16th January 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
Danny Ings being ruled out with coronavirus has certainly changed my angle here. I was originally trying to find a way to oppose Leicester but with Southampton missing him, I am reluctant to side with the Saints.
That being said, I still can’t find a way to back Leicester. The Foxes certainly have decent players but I can’t help but feel that their results and points return has been hugely boosted by the volume of penalties they have received this term.
Brendan Rodgers’ side have received a league high 10 spot kicks and have scored eight of them meaning that 26% (eight of 31) have come from 12 yards. You probably couldn’t argue with the majority of the decisions but they were mostly very minor offences that were very unlikely to have resulted in a goal had the foul not taken place.
Additionally, their goal return of 31 is five more than would be expected and having watched them in a number of games recently, I can see why they struggle to break teams down and rely on excellent finishing to win tight games.
Aston Villa, West Ham and Fulham have all won at The King Power stadium this season and Leicester have scored just a single goal in those three fixtures; surely Southampton will adopt a similar strategy on Saturday night: a low block to minimise the space in behind for Jamie Vardy.
With all this in mind, despite the fact that just six of Leicester’s 17 games have seen two goals or fewer, I am going to back Under 2.5 Goals, which is available at 19/20 with Betfair. Such a bet has obliged in Southampton’s last five matches and with their talisman Ings out, I don’t expect them to throw caution to the wind here.
I did consider backing a 2-1 victory for the home side as a saver (this has been the correct score in two of Leicester’s last seven league games) but will keep it simple and take Under 2.5 Goals, available at 19/20 with Betfair.
Leicester vs Southampton – Under 2.5 Goals (19/20 Betfair)