CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Sunday night's clash between Leicester and Burnley.
Leicester vs Burnley | Sunday 20th September 2020, 19:00 | BBC1
Burnley will get their season underway as they travel to the King Power to take on a Leicester side who will be hoping to make it two wins from as many games.
The Foxes got off to the perfect start as Jamie Vardy and new boy Timothy Castagne both got on the scoresheet to dispatch West Brom in a resounding 3-0 victory at The Hawthorns. That start was just what was needed after a poor end to last season that cost City a spot in this season’s Champions League.
Burnley have had an extra week to prepare for this as their scheduled season opener against Manchester United was postponed. Despite this, manager Sean Dyche has seen his already limited squad further depleted, with Jeff Hendrick and Joe Hart moving to Newcastle and Tottenham respectively on free transfers.
Key stats (2019/2020):
- Committed on average 10.8 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Received on average 11.4 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Saw 2+ cards in 2/9 home games against teams in the top half of the table.
- In those games, the opposition saw 2+ cards on 6/9 occasions.
- Scored in 5/9 home games against sides in the top half.
- Conceded in 6/9 home games against sides in the top half.
- Committed on average 10.6 fouls per game when playing away.
- Received on average 9.6 fouls per game when playing away.
- Saw 2+ cards in 6/9 away games against sides in the top half.
- In those games, the opposition saw 2+ cards on 1/9 occasions.
- Scored in 5/9 away games against sides in the top half.
- Conceded in 8/9 away games against sides in the top half.
- Leicester are unbeaten in NINE home league games against Burnley (W5, D4) including all FIVE at the King Power (W3, D2).
- The away side scored first in both EPL meetings between these two last season. But the home side came back to win 2-1 both times.
- Leicester have lost their opening home game in just ONE of their 13 EPL campaigns (0-5 Vs. Bolton Wanderers in 01-02).
- Leicester City have only won their first two games of an EPL season twice before – 97/98 and in their title-winning season of 2015/2016.
- Burnley have won their opening league game in TWO of the last THREE seasons – drawing once. As many as in their previous NINE seasons.
- Burnley lost just ONE of their last EIGHT EPL away games in 2019/20. However, the Clarets have won just ONE of their last SIX season-opening away games.
- Since the start of last season, Jamie Vardy has scored more EPL goals (25) than any other player. He also has the best shot conversion rate in that time.
- Under 2.5 goals has landed in Burnley’s last FOUR away EPL games.
- Leicester City are undefeated in their last NINE home games against Burnley in all competitions.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in their THREE most recent head-to-heads.
- James Maddison and Christian Fuchs returned from injury via substitute appearances last time out in their victory over West Brom.
- Jonny Evans is still suspended and Wes Morgan is an injury doubt. This may see Wilfred Ndidi play in the centre back position again.
- Gudmundsson, Barnes, Mee and Cork or all expected to miss this game through injury.
- James Tarkowski missed the midweek game against Sheffield United through a toe injury – he remains a doubt for this one.
My first pick is for there to be at least three goals in the game. We’ve already seen a hatful of goals in the top-flight this term and I’m expecting this trend to continue with Over 2.5 Goals available at 21/20 (BetVictor). In the three most recent head-to-heads this pick has resulted in a winner.
We’re yet to see Burnley this season but it’s worth noting that they got on the scoresheet in 13/19 away games last season – including in this. They don’t score too many but they can contribute; it’s also worth noting that when they played away to sides in the top-half, they conceded in eight of nine. With these combined records, I fully expect the 2.5 line to be exceeded.
Secondly, I’m going with a BetBuilder on Bet365 – Both Teams Under 3 Cards Each and Burnley Under 2 Goals at 23/20 (Bet365). This exact bet has landed in two of the last three meetings between these two at the KP – it would’ve been all three if not for a 94th minute card in the last fixture in the Midlands.
I don’t think this will be a game where we see a lot of cynical fouls or emotions boiling over, as such, I believe this price is excellent value.