LEICESTER host Tottenham in Saturday's early Premier League kick-off. Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) delivers his betting analysis.
Leicester v Tottenham | Saturday 21st September 2019, 12:30 | BT Sport
The lunchtime game is a mouthwatering prospect between two sides who have both collected eight points from their opening five games.
Leicester were downed by a Marcus Rashford penalty at Old Trafford against Manchester United last weekend, and will be looking to return to winning ways.
Tottenham eased past Crystal Palace in a 4-0 thumping that saw Spurs complete the scoring inside 42 minutes, so the Foxes will have to be on-guard against a fast from the capital club.
That win came after Mauricio Pochettino sat down with his players in their team meeting to iron out a few potential issues that were surfacing. Now they’ve been sorted, it can see the players return their focus on playing for the club, rather than any imminent transfers.
Despite that, Spurs will be looking to write Wednesday’s wrongs. In the Champions League, they squandered a 2-0 lead in Greece and only left with a point, leaving Pochettino very frustrated.
Pochettino’s men have a sold record against the Foxes of late too. They’ve won four of the last five Premier League clashes, including three in a row, while they’ve tasted just one defeat in their last six visits to the King Power Stadium.
There’s been plenty of goals in their meetings too – 27 scored in six to be exact, so an average of 4.50 per-game shows why we should be excited about this match-up. Over 2.5 Goals is chalked up at 17/20, which has to be considered just on those figures alone.
Fresher Foxes
Tottenham travelled to Greece on Wednesday, and even though Pochettino rotated his squad, it’ll be the hosts who’ll be the fresher for this Premier League outing. Son is likely to get a start, while Serge Aurier is also likely to come in as Spurs look to get back to winning ways.
There do have to be concerns about Spurs’ away form after they allowed a two-goal lead to slip away. Throughout that game, Spurs’ play lacked any sense of urgency or tempo, which is likely to have frustrated Pochettino.
That’ll need to be improved, especially if they want to record their first away win in the league since January. They lost their last six trips at the end of last season, and have picked up draws at Man City and Arsenal to start this campaign.
Son to shine
Plenty of the Opta stats for this game revolve around Harry Kane. He’s got an exemplary record against Leicester with 13 goals in 12 games, while the England captain has bagged 125 goals under Pochettino.
Despite that, he fired a blank in the 4-0 win over Palace and I’m keen to back one of his teammates here. Son Heung-min has a similarly good record against the Foxes to that of Kane. The South Korean has netted five times in six games versus Leicester, plus he’s assisted two further goals.
The 27-year-old scored twice against Palace, including opening the scoring inside 10 minutes. Plus, he has recorded the most shots on-target of any Spurs player this term (7).
Son is the perfect foil for Kane, and after his involvement from the bench in their Champions League game on Wednesday, then he is likely to get the nod over Lucas Moura.
7/1 quotes on Son to strike first do have definite appeal, but with two of England’s finer strikers lining up, then I’m more inclined to take the Anytime approach (12/5 Paddy Power), which looks equally appealing.
Tackle to success
These two sides might be level on points, but they sit wide apart when comparing the amount of tackles completed so far in this campaign. Leicester players have made a league high of 114 tackles, in comparison to Spurs’ league low of 68.
That highlights part of the philosophy Brendan Rodgers has instilled into his players since arriving at the Midlands club from Celtic. It’s quite clear that his players have brought into it to. Since he took over in March, only Liverpool (43), Man City (37) and Chelsea (27) have picked up more points than the Foxes (25).
Part of their style is the attractive football, but when out of possession, they will look to press high and have the foundations in midfield with Wilfrid Ndidi mopping up. The Nigerian ranks joint fourth for completed tackles with 20, while teammate Ricardo Pereira ranks second on 24 – only Aaron Wan-Bissaka has more.
When you look at recent figures for both players, it’s easy to make a case for them racking up the tackles once again. Pereira has completed 10 tackles in his last three games, including three against Bournemouth and Newcastle, prior to his haul of four at Old Trafford last weekend.
Ndidi has managed to go one better though, having made four tackles versus Bournemouth, then completing five at Man United. This pair are likely to cover plenty of ground, especially the full-back with the way the Foxes play, so his tracking back could see him getting his foot in to thwart a Spurs attack.
Sky Bet have the pair making 10+ tackles at 15/8, which on the stats would be of interest, but I’m taking Pereira in the ‘Build Your Bet’ feature with Coral to make 4+ tackles at an odds-against price of 11/10 – it’s odds-on elsewhere.
Best Bets
Leicester v Tottenham – Son Heung-min to score at anytime (12/5 Paddy Power)
Leicester v Tottenham – Ricardo Pereira to have 4+ tackles (11/10 Coral)
