Leeds vs Liverpool | Monday 19th April 2021, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Leeds welcome Liverpool to Elland Road in a Premier League clash for the first time in 17 years on Monday night, and they’ll fancy their chances against the reigning Champions.
A lot has happened since these two sides met at Anfield on the opening day of this bizarre season, with the hosts winning a thrilling game 4-3. Mo Salah bagged himself a hat-trick in that game, with Virgil Van Dijk scoring the other.
The latter's absence for several months has been one of the main factors for what has been a turbulent season for the Reds, who crashed out of the Champions League on Wednesday night at the hands of Real Madrid.
Their only hopes of qualifying for next season’s iteration of the competition now rests on them finishing in the top four; with Leicester, West Ham, Chelsea, Spurs and Everton also vying for the two available spots not currently occupied by the Manchester clubs.
It makes every game between now and the end of the season theoretically a must win for Jurgen Klopp’s side, and their first task comes against a side that plays without fear.
Well that’s all a bit irrelevant now isn’t it? Liverpool, alongside eleven other clubs (including five Premier League sides) have all decided they’re too good for the current system and have decided to create their own league – which they can’t be relegated from. Great.
The sheer audacity of these clubs and their greedy owners is downright shameful, and will be the final nail in the coffin for the relationship between clubs and the fans that made them.
It’s hard to put into my words my sheer disgust for everyone involved in this breakaway league, and I hope football’s governing bodies impose strict sanctions on all involved.
Anyway, back to the preview:
Marcelo Bielsa’s men have been a joy to watch on their long-awaited return to top flight football, contributing to some of the most exciting games so far this season, and I expect this one to follow much the same pattern.
These sides both rank quite highly offensively (averaging 1.58 and 1.71 goals scored per game, respectively) and aren’t terribly impressive (1.58 and 1.19 conceded per game) so it’s fair to expect an exciting encounter.
Unfortunately, the odds reflect those facts. Both Teams to Score is best priced at ⅗, with both sides to find the net and three or more goals just ¾.
It sent me down a bit of a rabbit hole to try and find a price I liked the look of, and I stumbled upon some statistics that really intrigued me.
Over the course of the season, the tendency for both of these sides is to save the goals until the second half. Of the 29 goals scored by Liverpool away from home this season, 21 of them (72%) have come after the break.
In fact, 16 of the last 18 goals scored by either side in their away games have come in the second half (89%); with the two that didn’t actually coming in first half stoppage time.
Jurgen Klopp’s side have really left it late recently, and that’s a trend which matches the hosts too.
10 of the last 14 goals scored at Elland Road by Leeds United have come in the second half, an impressive 71%.
It’s why I like the look of the Second Half to be Highest Scoring Half at evens with Betfair.
Elsewhere, I’m looking into the Shot On Target market for value in this one and noticed a price that surprised me.
Jack Harrison to have a Shot On Target at 15/8 with Betfair was a price I wasn’t expecting to see.
The left winger has had an effort on goal in six of the last seven games in which he has completed over 70 minutes, averaging a shot on target every 77 minutes in those games.
He should be fresh for this one, having missed last weekend’s incredible win at Manchester City due to them being his parent club, and I reckon he’ll fancy his chances against Trent Alexander-Arnold.