ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Leeds entertain Burnley in the Premier League on Sunday.
Leeds vs Burnley | Sunday 27th December 2020, 12:00 | Sky Sports
Elland Road is the venue as Burnley travel to Yorkshire to take on Leeds.
Burnley have hit some great form going into the Christmas period, unbeaten in six of their last seven with the only loss coming in the drubbing at Manchester City.
Leeds have received bucket loads of praise over the last week after their style of play just came even more into the spotlight in their 6-2 loss at old Trafford. They make for a great watch, it has to be said, with 6/10 games in the Premier League this season to feature 34+ shots involving Leeds.
Yet with their attacking verve and energy on the pitch lies holes and gaps to exploit for the opposition, and United’s six goals really could have been 10. It’s actually the first time any of Marcelo Bielsa’s sides have conceded six goals in a match since his Newell’s Old Boys side lost 0-6 to San Lorenzo in the 1992 Copa Libertadores.
Burnley face the Lilywhites being scoring the least amount of Premier League goals, with eight.
Despite Leeds’ involvement in goal-heavy games, the same cannot be said for Burnley. Burnley have seen under 2 goals scored in 8/13 this season and have kept four clean sheets in their last seven. They will likely set up deep and frustrate Leeds with Burnley not having the ammunition like top sides to go toe-to-toe with Bielsa.
This may lead to a low scoring game and the fact we can get 29/20 on Under 2.5 Goals seems too good to be true. Usually, the market always sides with under 2.5 goals in Burnley games and the only reasoning for this price is Leeds’s style of play. They themselves have seen the goals fly in away from home, but at Elland Road 43% of games have seen Under 2.5 goals land.
The Clarets will wait for set-pieces to pounce
Leeds have conceded 9 of their 30 goals from set pieces. That’s very high for this stage in the season and Sean Dyche will know that Leeds can be got at from free kicks and corners.
You can bet your house on the fact that he has had them on the training ground practicing set pieces. They scored from one against Wolves on Monday when Chris Wood flicked it in from close range.
Centre backs against Leeds have had some joy in getting attempts at goal. An opposition centre back has managed a shot in EVERY Leeds game this season, with centre halves facing them having a total of 22 shots in their 14 matches.
Burnley will go with James Tarkowski and Ben Mee unless there is any last-minute injuries. Tarkowski has managed 1+ shot in 7/11 starts and 4/6 away.
Ben Mee has managed a shot in 3/4 away and it’s worth noting that when one of them doesn’t manage an attempt, the other one does.
PokerStars go 6/5 for Mee to have a shot and Tarkowski 23/20. We can profit here if either of them manages an attempt at goal which looks a good thing, and best-case scenario they both do. Sky Bet go 10/11 on both players if you don’t have a PokerStars account.
Best Bets
Leeds vs Burnley – Under 2.5 Goals (29/20 Betfair)
Leeds vs Burnley – James Tarkowski 1+ shot (23/20 PokerStars)
Leeds vs Burnley – Ben Mee 1+ shot (6/5 PokerStars)
