THE BUNDESLIGA continues on Sunday and Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) shares his research for Koln's derby contest at home to Fortuna Dusseldorf.
Koln v Fortuna Dusseldorf | Sunday 24th May, 17:00 | BT Sport
Both of these sides picked up a point on their return to action, but they were done in slightly different fashions. Köln squandered a two-goal lead in their 2-2 draw with Mainz, while Fortuna Dusseldorf played out a stalemate against Paderborn in a relegation battle.
It wasn’t for a want of trying that saw Uwe Rosler’s side fail to break the deadlock. Valon Berisha saw a couple of his efforts strike the woodwork before Steven Skrzybski also hit the frame of Paderborn’s goal.
Under Rosler, Dusseldorf have only lost once in seven, but they’ve only won once. The five games would say to expect another tight and low-scoring contest, which could make them worth a play on the Asian Handicap.
Expected Goals data
Köln 2.71xG v 2.45xG Mainz (2-2)
Dusseldorf 0.96xG v 0.81xG Paderborn (0-0)
Köln 39.5xG (scored 41)
Dusseldorf 28.00xG (scored 27)
Köln 40.28xGA (conceded 47)
Dusseldorf 52.91xGA (conceded 50)
The betting angles
Köln have pulled themselves clear of danger and have been pretty solid at home. Only Bayern Munich have won here at the RheinEnergieStadion in the last six games.
And last weekend they looked well on the way to another home win before squandering a two-goal lead. Only Hoffenheim had a better xG than the Billy Goats showing they created some good goal-scoring opportunities.
The front pairing of Jhon Cordoba and Mark Uth had eight shots between them, with only three hitting the target. It was the latter who opened the scoring from 12-yards in the opening 10 minutes.
Despite Dusseldorf hitting the woodwork on multiple occasions last week, they still had an xG under 1. The one thing that I noticed when I flicked on their game last weekend was Rosler’s willingness to keep switching systems.
By the end of the game, Erik Thommy was playing as a marauding left-wing back and posing a threat down that flank with his pace, and that could be an area they look to exploit. If they go with a back five here then Thommy could start in that position. They hit plenty of cross-field diagonals in his direction and used his pace as an outlet.
Kosovan international Valon Berisha was the unlucky man in Rosler’s side hitting the woodwork on a couple of occasions. He only played 68 minutes last weekend but had three shots. Back before he enforced break, he had two in a draw against Mainz. The 27-year-old is still adapting to life in the Bundesliga, but he looks set to be a key cog as Dusseldorf battle for survival.
Köln concede around 13.6 shots per-game, while it’s 14.4 for Dusseldorf. Given we saw the hosts looking a bit vulnerable at the back, then I’m willing to side with Berisha to trouble their backline.
He makes late runs into the opposition box, and will look to pull the trigger if finding space in and around the area. The 2/1 (Sky Bet) for him to have 2 or more shots in the game looks very attractive.
As mentioned at the start, Dusseldorf on the Asian Handicap could be worth a look given the amount of draws under Rosler. +0.75 (11/12 BetVictor) has legs if the visitors set-up to stifle this Koln frontline with a back five – that’s one to wait for team news on.
It’ll be a winner if Dusseldorf win or draw, a half loss if they lose by a goal and a full lose if they fall to defeat.
Koln v Fortuna Dusseldorf: – Valon Berisha 2+ Shots (2/1 Sky Bet)