LYON hold a 1-0 lead from their Last 16 first leg Champions League showdown with Juventus ahead of Friday's return. Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) shares his thoughts on the fixture from Turin.
Juventus vs Lyon | Friday 7th August 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Juventus welcome Lyon to the Allianz Stadium on Friday night as the Old Lady look to overturn a 1-0 deficit. The Italians were largely unlucky in the first leg way back in February as they piled on the pressure and saw a larger portion of possession, but ultimately fell to defeat thanks to a Lucas Tousart goal.
From then, we’ve endured a lockdown and slowly seen football return across the globe. Since the first leg in France, Lyon have played just four competitive matches as the Ligue 1 season was prematurely ended due to the pandemic. One of those fixtures saw them lose on penalties in the Coupe de la Ligue final to PSG last week.
It’s well documented how successful Juventus are domestically, they recently secured their ninth Scudetto on the bounce. However, they’ve not been able to replicate that dominance in the elite competitions. We’re in unusual circumstances, and with only the Champions League left to focus on, could this be the year that Maurizio Sarri’s side finally get their hands on old big ears?
Key stats
Juventus:
- Commit on average 12.3 fouls per game when playing at home in the Champions League (UCL).
- Receive on average 14.7 fouls per game when playing at home in the UCL.
- Have seen 2+ cards in just 1/3 home games in the UCL this campaign.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 2/3 occasions.
- Have scored in 3/3 and scored 2+ in 2/3 home games in the UCL this season.
- Have conceded in 1/3 and conceded 2+ in 0/3 home games in the UCL this campaign.
Lyon:
- Commit on average 12 fouls per game when playing away in the UCL.
- Receive on average 11.3 fouls per game when playing away in the UCL.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 2/3 away games in the UCL this campaign.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 3/3 occasions.
- Have scored in 2/3 and scored 2+ in 1/3 away games in the UCL this campaign.
- Have conceded in 2/3 and conceded 2+ in 2/3 away games in the UCL this season.
Key facts:
- Under 2.5 Goals has landed in Juve’s last three UCL games.
- Lyon have played just four competitive matches since the first leg, including a loss to PSG in the Coupe de la Ligue final.
- Lyon have lost 4/5 away matches to Italian opposition in UEFA competitions.
- In the knockout phase, Lyon are winless in their last 10 away games (W0-D2-L8) and have failed to score in six of those.
- Lyon have lost the second leg in 9/10 UCL knockout ties.
- Cristiano Ronaldo has scored 18 goals in his last 12 home UCL knockout games – including four hat-tricks.
Analysis
Given the stats, I’m heavily favouring Juventus to go through here against a Lyon side who’ve hardly played since the first leg.
Fitness could play a huge part in this, whilst I have no doubt that Lyon have been putting the work in on the training ground, nothing can compare to playing matches. Sharpness, confidence and form will come into play here which gives the Old Lady a huge advantage.
As mentioned in the key facts, Lyon have lost four of their last five away matches against Italian sides in UEFA competitions and have also lost 9/10 second legs in the UCL.
I’m confident Sarri and his men will get the job done here and propel themselves into the quarter-finals, as such I’m going with Juventus to qualify as a single (20/21 Boylesports) and also within a BetBuilder combined with Under 4 Goals (2/1 Betfair). I personally feel it will be a tentative affair as Juventus look to secure a clean sheet and won’t allow Lyon to build any meaningful attacks.
Juventus will be looking to re-assert themselves within this tie from the moment Felix Zwayer blows the first whistle – I think the Lyon defence is going to have a tough night at the Allianz, particularly if Ronaldo is in one of those moods.
CR7 is always the danger man, regardless of the competition, but he really does tend to put on a show in the Champions League when it matters. He’s scored 18 goals in his last 12 UCL home matches and that includes four hat-tricks! I fancy him to score here and I think for him to score two goals at 10/3 is an excellent price with Betfair.
Best Bets
Juventus vs Lyon – Juventus To Qualify (20/21 Boylesports)
Juventus vs Lyon – Juventus To Qualify and Under 4 Goals (2/1 Betfair)
Juventus vs Lyon – Cristiano Ronaldo To Score 2+ Goals (10/3 Betfair)
