CAN Porto complete the impossible in Turin on Tuesday night? Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) shares his best bet.
Juventus v Porto | Tuesday 19:45 | BT Sport
Only twice in Champions League history has a side overturned a home first leg defeat to win the tie but that’s the task that awaits Porto on Tuesday night as they travel to Turin for the deciding Last 16 contest with Juventus.
The Portuguese outfit saw Alex Telles dismissed the 27th minute for two wild challenges in the space of 74 seconds during the first encounter but kept the Old Lady at bay until the 72nd minute; substitutes Marko Pjaca and Dani Alves securing a 2-0 triumph for Juve.
Nuno Espirito Santos’s side are now without the suspended Telles plus injured skipper Hector Herrera and Jesus Corona for the return leg. The two-time champions are unattractive 20/1 (Betfair) in the To Qualify market here and appear unlikely to cause the Bianconeri major headaches this midweek.
Eagles wings clipped
The Eagles failed to muster a single shot on-target first time around and struggled on the road in a relatively soft pool, losing 1-0 at Leicester, being held 0-0 in Copenhagen and bagging a fortuitous 2-1 triumph at Club Brugge, where they needed a last-minute penalty to secure victory.
Porto are unbeaten in the Portuguese top-flight since August but have failed to record victories in six of their past 11 games as guests (W5-D4-L2) across all competitions and have fired blanks in six of those fixtures.
January signing Francisco Soares has netted in seven of his last eight matches – 10 goals in total – and will shoulder the goalscoring burden for the Eagles but even so, it’s hard to envisage Nuno’s troops making head weigh here, even if Giorgio Chiellini and Andrea Barzagli don’t recover from minor knocks.
Rock-solid home record
Juventus have shutout five of their last six opponents in the Champions League and suffered just one loss at their J Stadium home to non-Italian opposition way back in 2011 against Bayern Munich – a run of 40 outings in this competition.
It’s true the Old Lady haven’t impressed at home in this season’s tournament (W1-D2-L0) – both Sevilla and Lyon gave Max Allegri’s men stern examinations here – but their consistency in collecting positive results can’t be ignored.
Those goalless draws with Sevilla and Lyon are the only two games in which the Italian giants have failed to win in Turin this term whilst Friday’s controversial 2-1 triumph over Milan – sealed by Paulo Dybala's 97th-minute penalty – made it 31 consecutive home wins in Serie A for the Bianconeri.
The hosts are unbeaten in 20 (W11-D9-L0) Turin matches in European competition and have won all 36 UEFA ties in which they triumphed in the first leg away from home. Sealing the deal with a second success over Porto appears the obvious outcome.
The betting angles
Juventus -0.75 on the Asian Handicap is 10/11 at BetVictor and will see us nail down profit should the Old Lady come out on top – we’ll see a half-stakes win should the hosts win by one-goal with a full-stakes pay-out ensured if the Bianconeri bag a victory by two or more goals.
Meanwhile, six of Juve’s past 11 contests have resulted in 2-0 correct scores – a repeat can be backed at 29/4 (10Bet) – that’s 8.25 in decimals – and seems like a decent interest bet with the tie as good as over.