ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Hungary and Portugal lock horns in Group F at Euro 2020 on Tuesday.
Hungary vs Portugal | Tuesday 15th June 2020, 17:00 | ITV
This is arguably Hungary’s biggest ever game as a national football team as they host their first ever European Championships against the reigning champions.
Nine of Marco Rossi’s squad were actually born in Budapest where the game is being played, inside the Puskas Arena. This stadium is going to hold the most spectators out of all Euro 2020 grounds: with over 60,000 expected to watch the game live.
That gives Hungary a huge boost to their chances, with this being on home soil and fans arriving in their thousands to cheer them on. But it has to be said, the Hungarians need a miracle to qualify, with Germany, France and Portugal all expected to beat them.
The absence of Dominik Szoboszlai is damning for their chances to escape the group of death as he is the future of the Hungarian national team.
Their task remains daunting since Hungary have never defeated Portugal, with the record standing at 9 wins and 4 draws in the Selecao’s favour.
However, they are undefeated in 11 matches and have only failed to score in one of their 15 home fixtures under Marco Rossi.
Meanwhile for Portugal if they really want to prove their outright price of 10/1 is worth getting onside then they need to turn up in Budapest.
Portugal’s gaffer Fernando Santos has a phenomenal international managerial record: losing just 18 of 131 matches, overseeing Greece and Portugal. In seven years in charge of the Selecao, his side has only suffered four defeats.
I think they’ll turn up here and as such I like the look of Portugal 2+ goals, Portugal 5+ corners and Hungary 2+ cards at 9/4 with Betfair.
Portugal have scored 2+ goals in 13/19 games since the start of Euro qualification (includes World Cup qualification and Nations League), whilst in qualifying for this tournament it was 5/8 games.
Portugal averaged 7.74 corners per game and the majority of the game should be played in Hungary’s half, hopefully seeing them hit 5 corners.
Out of the 24 teams in this summer’s tournament, no side averaged more cards in qualifying and the Nations league games than Hungary at 2.84. Hungary played 25 games in this sample, and saw 5.28 cards per game, second only to Wales at 5.50.
What is interesting is across this sample for both these sides, they rank in the top four for cards against. Portugal’s opponents in 23 Euro qualifiers and Nations League games averaged 2.48 cards per game, with Hungary’s opponents average total at 2.44.
These stats suggest we could expect to see cards from Cuneyt Cakir’s pocket in the Hungarian capital. The Turkish referee is as experienced as they get: one of only two to survive from the Euro 2012 crop (Bjorn Kuipers the other).
Hungary:
- Collected 2+ cards in 8/10 Euro Qualifiers
- Collected 23Y and 2R in 10 Euro Qualifiers – 2.5 cpg average
- Have seen 2+ cards in 11 of their last 13 games in either Euro or World Cup Qualifiers since March 2019
The referee’s yellow cards in his three major tournaments:
- Euro 2012 – 2, 7, 9 – both sides carded in 2/3
- Euro 2016 – 2, 2, 7 – both sides carded in 2/3
- World Cup 2018 – 4, 5, 3 – both sides carded in 3/3
- That’s both sides booked in 7/9 games, with games involving Portugal and referee Cakir seeing Portugal’s opponents collect 2+ cards in 2/2.
- The referee from Istanbul has given 2+ cards in 9/9 games, and 3+ in 6/9.
Portugal:
- Their opponents collected 2+ cards in 6/8 Euro Qualifiers
- Opponents collected more cards than them in 6/8 Euro Qualifiers
- Portugal’s opponents have collected 2+ cards in 8 of their last 11 Euro and World Cup Qualifiers since March 2019
Therefore, I like the look of Both Teams Over 0 Cards and Portugal to score Over 0 Goals at 4/6 with Bet365.
Best Bets
Hungary vs Portugal – Both Teams Over 0 Cards and Portugal to score Over 0 Goals (4/6 Bet365)
Hungary vs Portugal – Portugal 2+ goals, Portugal 5+ corners and Hungary 2+ cards (9/4 Betfair)
