ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Hungary and France lock horns in Group F at Euro 2020 on Saturday.
Hungary vs France | Saturday 19th June 2020, 14:00 | BBC
The favourites for the tournament, France, travel to Budapest to face a Hungary side playing in front of 60,000 fans at the Puskas Arena.
Marco Rossi’s men put in a spirited display against Portugal before ultimately capitulating under pressure from Ronaldo and co, conceding three times in eight minutes.
Portugal were deserved winners in Budapest despite the resilience from the Magyar’s in the opening half.
France, on the other hand, showed why they are the majority of punter’s favourite fancies: exceptional in defence against Germany, Pogba and Kante controlling the game in the middle of the park, and promising in attack.
Their 1-0 win against the Germans flattered their opponents, as it could have been many more. They should win here and are 1/3 to do so.
I don’t think they will run riot however and the 10/11 being offered by Sky Bet for them to win the game featuring fewer than four goals appeals. It is a bet that has won in their last seven away games.
If France go a goal ahead in the first half then I’d expect them to rest their players ins second half and play in second gear, ahead of the knockout phases.
This is a go-to bet for me at the Euros as games aren’t seeing many goals at all. 14/18 games have seen a team win and under 3.5 goals. With France hot favourites, this is the best bet for the game.
Elsewhere, Hungary are always good for a card bet. On Tuesday evening, we played the Portugal 2+ goals, 5+ corners and Hungary 2+ cards and I’m going back in again at a similar price for a rinse and repeat job.
France to score 2+ goals, France 5+ corners and Hungary 2+ cards is 5/2 at Betfair and is a price I cannot ignore. Indeed, this landed in Hungary’s opener, and I have France as a bigger test than Portugal for the home side.
English official Michael Oliver takes charge here. His cards per game in 2020/21 was at 3.12, which rose to 4.5 cards a game in four international matches.
Last domestic season, Oliver took charge of four international fixtures and gave 3, 5, 4 and 6 cards, including a game involving Hungary where he gave them three cards.
France averaged 5.87 corners per game in qualifying and the Nations League campaign. 5/2 is too big for this and will be a fun bet to cheer on.
Out of the 24 teams in this summer’s tournament, no side averaged more cards in qualifying and the Nations league games than Hungary at 2.84.
The Magyars were given two cards against Portugal in their Group F opener last Tuesday and collected 2+ cards in 8/10 Euro Qualifiers. They collected 23Y and 2R in 10 Euro Qualifiers – a 2.5 cpg average.
I’m also all over the 7/4 on offer for a penalty kick to be awarded in the match, available at various firms. I’ve taken it at Betfair.
Referee Oliver has given 25 penalties in 41 games in 2020/21, which is in 61% of his games and a penalty average of over 0.6 per game.
There have been eight penalties at Euro 2020 so far, with 4/8 (50%) missed. Given that Hungary conceded a penalty last time out to Portugal, I’m even more strong on this.
France have actually missed 3/4 penalties in preparation for the tournament, with Mbappe, Griezmann and Benzema all miss firing. They are 12/1 to miss a penalty at Bet365.
Best Bets
Hungary vs France – France to win and Under 3.5 Goals (10/11 Sky Bet)
Hungary vs France – France to score 2+ goals, France 5+ corners and Hungary 2+ cards (5/2 Betfair)
Hungary vs France – A penalty to be awarded (7/4 Betfair)
