GOLF analyst Lewis Blain (@LewisBlainSport) shares his betting thoughts ahead of the WGC-Mexico Championship.
WGC-Mexico Championship | 20th-23rd February 2020 | Sky Sports
The Course
- Club de golf Chapultepec
- Par 71 – 7,345 yards but it's more like 6,700ish due to altitude.
- Strategically tight but flat layout; tree-lined.
The Trends
- Ball-strikers or short-game prowess tend to succeed.
- SG T2G.
- Finding the right spot off the tee.
- Euros can do well here given comps to similar course on the ET, such as Crans.
Tommy Fleetwood (20/1 SkyBet)
This one is a simple choice given links to the European Tour and past course history.
Tommy Fleetwood has recorded three top-20s since the WGC came here, including a second place in 2017. The Englishman is a supreme ball-striker who regularly finds greens and his length makes some holes very reachable in two, sometimes even one which opens up plenty of scoring opportunities.
Fleetwood won the Nedbank before the season close back in November and has contended in every tournament since, going back-to-back runner-up at DP World Tour and Abu Dhabi before a T11 in Dubai.
He's in-form and at 20/1 (SkyBet) I am more than happy to take him from all the front-runners.
Patrick Reed (40/1 SkyBet)
High-quality winners tend to win these events – hardly a surprise given the strength of field but it's still the elite of the elite. Your 100/1+ types don't tend to come out on top regularly, for example. Therefore I will take some nice value on Masters and WGC winner Patrick Reed, even if I despise him.
Last year around here, Reed was third before the final round and was never going to contend with a 73 after that so he can make amends this time. He's consistent on POA surfaces and has a very good short game. He's also won two play-off competitions too.
40/1 (SkyBet) is a very nice price to take.
Sergio Garcia (45/1 Betfair)
Another player I am not a fan of at all, his behaviour never helps, is Sergio Garcia, but he should go well around here to give us a run for our money. His T2G and ball-striking game was on point at Riviera last week, where he was one of the last few off my list.
The Spaniard is trending upwards with each attempt around this course – T12 in 2017, T7 in 2018 and then T6 last year. He's won everywhere, including at Crans – another altitude course and obviously is another Masters champ.
Garcia has managed a handful of top-10s since his win at the KLM Open so that tells you he's in form. Maybe it's time for him to add a WGC to his trophy cabinet.
Best Bets
WGC-Mexico Championship – Tommy Fleetwood (20/1 each-way SkyBet)
WGC-Mexico Championship – Patrick Reed (40/1 each-way SkyBet)
WGC-Mexico Championship – Sergio Garcia (45/1 each-way Betfair)
