GOLF analyst Lewis Blain (@LewisBlainSport) shares his betting thoughts ahead of WGC FedEx St. June Invitational this week.
WGC FedEx St. June Invitational | PGA Tour | 30th July – 2nd August 2020 | Sky Sports
- TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee
- Par 70 – 7,238 yards
- Host to the St Jude Classic for 30yrs before last year's maiden WGC
- Treelined parklands with Bermuda greens
- Some dog-legged fairways
- Surprisingly sees more water balls than TPC Sawgrass
- As is often the case with events like this one, the cream of the crop tends to rise to the top
- Ball-striking and being long yet straight off the tee will be placed at a premium
- Therefore, approach game and greens in regulation are considered
- As is scrambling and ability to rack up results on the par-4s & ability to avoid those bogeys
- Course history isn't a deal-breaker, four of nine winners have been first-timers
- Wai'alae, Sea Island, Colonial and events at Mayakoba & Puerto Rico are nice pointers.
Xander Schauffele (20/1 William Hill)
With pretty much everyone here apart from Tiger Woods, there are very worthy names at the front of the betting. Try and separate Rahm to Rory and JT. Throw in Bryson and Cantlay too. It's a pretty phenomenal front five in the market.
Instead, we'll start a little bit back with Xander Schauffele at 20/1. He's often my go-to when we arrive at a tough deck, but it's easy to see why given he's won at East Lake and Sheshan, and also had runner-up finishes at the Masters, the Open Championship and at those two tracks he's won on. This is encouraging.
X-man is 3rd for GIR, 5th for P4 scoring, 10th for bogey avoidance and 17th for SG:APP on the PGA Tour this season. Tick, tick and tick on everything we're looking for.
He's clearly in decent nick as well having not missed a cut since the restart, and that includes a third-place finish at Colonial in an event he could've and should've won – yet another tick next to his name.
Patrick Reed (35/1 William Hill)
Another player with WGC-winning pedigree is the divisive Patrick Reed and this week he'll be painstakingly onboard. At 35/1 he presents the best value in the next rung of players, in my honest opinion.
Should the Masters winner who also has ten other wins across the PGA and European Tour really be priced behind those that have won far less and at a lighter frequency? If the world number #8 was horrifically out of form, then perhaps, but the fact is, he isn't.
T10 last time out at the Memorial came several weeks after a T7 around Colonial, that's something we like to see. And in Reed, we get a ruthless competitive streak that all born-winners have. He'll do whatever is necessary to get that victory.
Captain America is exactly what we're after in terms of profile as he hits it long and straight whilst consistently delivering on the par-4s. As someone who's yet to break into the top-5 worldwide despite a major win, that could provide some added motivation.
Matt Wallace (100/1 William Hill)
We'll finish the shorter staking plan with at least one longshot and I can't help but back my guy Matt Wallace, who has won us profit in the past. I think he's a hugely underrated talent and it won't be long before those across the Atlantic feel the same.
Over on the ET, he's won Made in Denmark, the BMW International, the Indian Open and the Portugal Open, so he clearly has winning pedigree and his appearances in USA have been hugely impressive. T3 at last year's PGA Championship sums it up, but if that's not enough, Wallace banged out a T4 at the Memorial last time out.
This shows he's hitting it well at the moment. He also posted a little update to social media, showing his willingness to approve and these incremental changes could bear fruit at this week's dog-legged track.
I would not be surprised to see him go well and outplay these odds nor would it be a shock to see him win something like a WGC. At three-figures, he's worth a punt.
WGC FedEx St. June Invitational – Xander Schauffele (20/1 each-way William Hill)
WGC FedEx St. June Invitational – Patrick Reed (35/1 each-way William Hill)
WGC FedEx St. June Invitational – Matt Wallace (100/1 each-way William Hill)