GOLF analyst Lewis Blain (@LewisBlainSport) shares his betting thoughts ahead of the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open from TPC Summerlin.
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open | 3rd-6th October 2019 | Sky Sports
The PGA Tour heads to Las Vegas for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open, a regular jaunt on tour and it boasts winners such as Tiger Woods, Webb Simpson, Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay.
It is held at TPC Summerlin, a desert track which stretches the best part of 7,200 yards with it being a Par 71. It's a birdie-fest, a complete score-fest. The winning score is often well above -20 so you'd expect the Korn Ferry grads to thrive here.
There will be comparisons to similar desert tracks such as TPC Scottsdale, PGA West while TPC Boston and Sedgefield tend to also correlate well.
Obviously scoring will be a big factor so Birdie or Better % and par-5 scoring are two absolutely key attributes. Ball-striking will ultimately be vital too so SG:T2G, SG:OTT & SG:APP are all considered. Opportunities Gained/Greens in Regulation and Driving Accuracy have some influence too.
The field is pretty decent too – multiple major winner Brooks Koepka makes the trip and is favourite for the trophy while previous champions of this event Cantlay and DeChambeau follow closely in the market.
Adam Hadwin (40/1 Betfair)
We begin our staking plan with Candian Adam Hadwin, who despite hailing from a very cold country, can play desert golf. He won the Desert Dunes on the Canadian Tour a long time ago, finished T2 at the Desert Classic this season and has shown up many a time at the Career Builder. He has a top-10 at Summerlin too.
As per Fantasy National, he rates out 9th in this field for GIR over the last six tournaments and 8th for SG:App. He's super reliable with the flatstick on bentgrass greens too, especially over the last six rounds where he ranks 4th in the field. He is the perfect fit for this week.
Scottie Scheffler (50/1 SkyBet)
Next up is one of the young KFT grads, who is surely one of the next that will win on the PGA stage. His form reads WIN – T11 – T7 – T7 – T16, with the last two coming on the PGA Tour.
This shows how well he does on birdie-fest type tests and the 7th in the Greenbrier two weeks ago makes even further appeal. In terms of ball-striking over the last six competitions, he ranks inside the top-10 for all key stats.
Aaron Wise (55/1 Betfair)
Next up is Aaron Wise who has been backed off the charts, but that doesn't faze me too much as I still like him at these odds. This is his ‘home' course and he spends a lot of time here, hence why everyone – myself included – is jumping on the bandwagon. He has two top-15s to his name in the last few years so that seems to align well.
He has one PGA Tour title to his name already having defeated Marc Leishman to the Byron Nelson last season, but in 2019 his best finish has only been a 17th – at the Masters nonetheless. He has a couple of top-20s in Mexico and at the Career Builder so it suggests he can play in the desert conditions. He's a top ball-striker when he's on his game too.
Brian Harman (66/1 SkyBet)
Then we have Brian Harman, who looks rather appealing at these odds. When you think of an accuracy test he is normally one that springs to mind, but he hasn't won since the Wells Fargo in 2017 at Eagle Point. Though, he's rounding into some quality form following up a T3 at the Greenbrier with a T14 at Sanderson Farms having started slowly.
He's also won the John Deere which is another notorious birdie-fest so it shows he can score when it's demanded. Both tournaments were on bentgrass greens too.
Over the past six tournaments, he rates out 3rd in the field for SG:T2G, and in the top-20 for APP/OTT. He should improve on his previous best of 15th around here.
Nick Watney (100/1 SkyBet)
Last but not least, Nick Watney completes the staking plan at triple figures. He's enjoying a career renaissance having one been a top-10 golfer in the world; there are multiple PGA Tour titles to his name including a WGC so it's nice to see him doing well.
A T6 in this year's John Deere suggests he could go well this week and that's backed up by a T10 in the Safeway last time out. His course form is really strong as he finished runner-up in 2011 and has four other top-16 finishes. He hasn't won since 2012, but he's playing some of his best stuff since then. He's well worth a dart at these odds.
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open – Adam Hadwin (40/1 each-way Betfair)
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open – Scottie Scheffler (50/1 each-way SkyBet)
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open – Aaron Wise (55/1 each-way Betfair)
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open – Brian Harman (66/1 each-way SkyBet)
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open – Nick Watney (100/1 each-way SkyBet)