GOLF analyst Lewis Blain (@LewisBlainSport) shares his betting thoughts ahead of the Open de Espana from Madrid.
Open de Espana | 3rd-6th October 2019 | Sky Sports
After last week's thrilling finish at the birdie-fest we like to call the Alfred Dunhill Links, a less attractive field heads across to Spain for the Open de Espana.
Jon Rahm spearheads the market at 3/1 despite missing the cut in Scotland, which tells you all you need to know about the players that have made the trip.
The course is the Club de Campo Villa which hasn't been seen much in the last two decades, let alone the last five or six years so there isn't too much to go off with regards to course form.
Therefore, we will look for players that suit this sort of test – it's a tight tree-lined parklands course, there's a few of those on the circuit this year where strategy and precision should pay off more than power and distance. You want to keep it out of the trees and rough.
So, players who are good ball-strikers from the tee to the green are essential (SG:OTT&APP), those that hit greens regularly and those that have a sharp short-game also must be considered. Par-4 scoring should be key also.
That being said, let's get into the bets.
Adri Arnaus (28/1 Boylesports)
The field is weak so the favourites are mighty short. Rahm could well rock up and storm this thing like he did last year on a different track, but at 3/1 it's an easy swerve. The first player to catch the eye as you go down the field is Adri Arnaus, who is an excellent young talent that will win plenty of European Tour events in the future. We've backed him a few times this year, but there will surely be no better place to than in his own country.
He finished T2 at Valderrama not too long ago, which was also in Spain and is a hugely tough track. It isn't too dissimilar to this therefore Aranus makes great appeal. He also finished T2 at the Kenya Open which again, is a tree-lined track. In terms of stats, he ranks 10th on tour for GIR and 5th for SG:OTT.
He should be nearer the 20 mark for me this week and thus makes great value.
Hugo Leon (90/1 Boylesports)
Not much makes appeal here this week, but I would like to throw a couple of darts out at longer odds in the hope we can hit the jackpot. First of which is Hugo Leon. He appears to be quite the underrated golfer as his odds are always quite long. The Chilean may take some inspiration from fellow countryman Joaquin Niemann winning the other week.
He ranks inside the top 45 for SG:App, SG:OTT and GIR – this takes added value considering how poor the field is, in comparison to his counterparts he'll be right up there.
Leon has popped in parts this season, but the trend suggests he would suit this week's test – T7 at the KLM Open recently on top of a T5 at the Czech Masters, T9 in the Belgian Knockout on a tree-lined track and he made the cut at Valderrama and in Kenya.
Jack Singh Brar (125/1 Boylesports)
Jack Singh Brar has missed two cuts in a row, but he returns to a track that should suit his game. The accurate Englishman is another ‘up and comer' and I am happy to back him consistently at these odds when the time is right.
He finished T15 at Valderrama and T12 in the Kenya Open which suggests this test of strategy is right up his street. He can put it in the right places being 23rd on the ET for Driving Accuracy while 32nd for GIR is rather encouraging too.
Open de Espana – Adri Arnaus (28/1 each-way Boylesports)
Open de Espana – Hugo Leon (90/1 each-way Boylesports)
Open de Espana – Jack Singh Brar (125/1 each-way Boylesports)