GOLF analyst Lewis Blain (@LewisBlainSport) shares his betting thoughts ahead of the BMW International Open from Munich on the European Tour.
BMW International Open | 20th-23rd June 2019 | Sky Sports
The European Tour is back, kicking off a fantastic run of tournaments with the BMW International Open in Germany.
Matt Wallace is the defending champion and comes here fresh off a T12 in the US Open at Pebble Beach. He brings over a strong contingent including fellow countryman Martin Kaymer who was third at the Memorial only two weeks ago.
- Golfclub Munchen Eichenried, Bavaria, Germany.
- Par 72 – 7,235 yards.
- An easy-scoring, flat, tree-lined parklands test.
- Light primary rough backed up by a nasty second cut of rough.
- The greens are slow but flat with little defence.
- It appears to be quite the all-round test this week but still side with premium ball-strikers and consistent putters.
- It should be a birdie fest with a key on par-5 scoring. You’ll need to score four-under each day to contend here.
- Accuracy off the tee edges distance slightly.
- GIR important and an ability to scramble can’t harm.
Julian Suri (28/1 Betfair)
Julian Suri is a talented American who rates out superbly for this test. He’s only won once on the European Tour but that’s no comparison to his true talent. For some of last year he had to battle injury but he’s back and is playing some of his best stuff right now.
If we bypass a missed cut in the US PGA Championship, he’s finished outside the top-25 just once in seven tournaments. This includes a T2 at the Trophee Hassan II, T4 at the Hero Indian Open and a T5 at the British Masters. Some of that is stretching back before his injury but that’s okay.
He also ranks in the top-35 on the European Tour for pretty much every stat we are looking for – Driving accuracy (32nd), Greens In Regulation (31st), Birdies (26th), Par-5 scoring (7th), Putts per GIR (29th) and Scrambling (19th). His price looks wrong here.
Romain Langasque (50/1 Boylesports)
Suri is the only one I like towards the front of the market. Thomas Detry’s price is now getting silly but he’s more than due a victory.
I’ll jump back to Frenchman Romain Langasque, a Challenge Tour graduate. His form is patchy but there’s some fantastic finishes in between missed cuts. A couple of weeks ago he finished third in the Made in Denmark and has other top-10s this season in China (T5) and Kenya (T6).
The Kenya form interests and could have some small comparisons to here. Langasque hits a lot of greens and can scramble well if he manages to miss them too. We’ll need a better week with the flat stick but that’s the most volatile aspect of one’s game, particularly on this tour.
Jeff Winther (100/1 Boylesports)
I will close the betting card with three huge outsiders. The first is the towering Dane Jeff Winther.
Just like the two before him, he’s been playing nicely this season on the European Tour and looks to have gone under the radar. Back-to-back top-20 finishes is more than encouraging, especially as he’s improved gradually on the leaderboard over both.
His short-game, putting included, is the strongest point of his game. I imagine he’s put the work in since his last appearance to improve off the tee and with his approach game. He has some win equity having won on much lesser tours so that’s encouraging if he gets himself into a position to contend. He’s worth a shout at these odds.
Masahiro Kawamura (200/1 Betfred)
One player who I expect to play far beyond his odds suggest is Masahiro Kawamura.
It wasn’t long ago when the young Japanese golfer was roughly 50-60/1 in tournaments such at this. Yes, he has missed three straight cuts after a withdrawal but he’s had more than enough time to resolve any issues with the PGA Tour and the majors taking centre stage over the last few weeks.
Before that torrid run he had a fantastic spell of three straight top-15 finishes including a runner-up place at the Indian Open. He’s only missed nine cuts in 39 tournaments since the start of 2018 with three of those coming in recent weeks. He’s far better than the odds suggest this week.
He rates out in the top 25 for par-5 scoring whilst his approach game isn’t too shabby and he is more than reliable with the flat stick. Go well Kawa.
Max Schmitt (250/1 Coral)
Finally, we end the plan by backing a countryman. Max Schmitt is another player who has caught my eye with a couple of good finishes on tour this season. He actually ranks 11th on the European Tour for par-5 scoring and just outside the top-20 for Putts per GIR which gives me confidence.
Schmitt won three times in 2017 on the ProGolf Tour whilst still as an amateur. He too has guided his country to the European Boys’ Team Championship in 2015 and has competed in the junior Ryder Cup. He’s still very young at the age of 21 but is regarded as a potential star in the game.
He played the course last time it was held here and shot a 67 to make the weekend before eventually dropping to 59th. He may well miss the cut but at these odds, it’s very much worth getting a countryman with such ability on side.
BMW International Open – Julian Suri (28/1 each-way Betfair)
BMW International Open – Romain Langasque (50/1 each-way Boylesports)
BMW International Open – Jeff Winther (100/1 each-way Boylesports)
BMW International Open – Masahiro Kawamura (200/1 each-way Betfred)
BMW International Open – Max Schmitt (250/1 each-way Coral)