REPUBLIC OF IRELAND begin their Euro 2020 qualifying campaign with a trip to minnows Gibraltar on Saturday evening. Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) sets the scene.
Gibraltar v Republic of Ireland | Saturday 23rd March 2019, 17:00 | Sky Sports
Mick McCarthy’s second stint as Republic of Ireland starts with what should be a straightforward success in Gibraltar on Saturday evening. With consistently strong pool rivals Switzerland and Denmark to come, the returning Irish boss will be well aware that any slip-up will prove fatal as ROI seek to qualify for a third successive European Championships.
It’s Ireland’s first trip to the miniscule Victoria Stadium with their last away day against Gib taking place in the Algarve. The Boys In Green will have to cope with an artificial pitch that can take its toll on players' bodies and the visitors will be aware a much sterner and potentially trickier test awaits against Georgia on Tuesday night.
Shane Long has been forced to withdraw from the squad through injury, leaving star quality light on the ground. Sean Maguire is in pole position for his first competitive start for Ireland, whilst Sheffield United's David McGoldrick could feature alongside him as McCarthy looks to make a good impression in his first outing as Irish boss since 2002.
An introduction to Dutching
In such lopsided contests, it can be difficult to find real value. At the time of writing, there’s no clear indication of starting XI or system from McCarthy whilst bookmakers are yet to offer prices on potential goalscorers. If Matt Doherty is given a berth on the right-side of midfield, there could be mileage in supporting the Wolves flyer to get on the scoresheet.
In the meantime, I’m happy to focus on the Correct Score market and explore a method known as Dutching. Dutching is used to divide your stake over a number of selections so that the same amount is won regardless of which selection wins. This technique is useful when there are two or more outcomes you wish to back and have a specific stake to bet.
In this instance, I’m looking towards the 3-0 (9/2 Ladbrokes), 4-0 (24/5 Ladbrokes) and 5-0 (7/1 Ladbrokes) Republic of Ireland victories, all handedly best-priced at the one firm. The handy Dutching calculator here on Oddschecker shows what our stake should be on each selection to guarantee that profit regardless of which result hopefully wins.
Following the correct staking method as advised by that calculator and splitting our stakes accordingly across all three Correct Scores essentially gives us an 11/10 shout to cheer on – not bad, eh? If that’s not completely clear, we’re basically backing Ireland to win 3-0, 4-0 or 5-0 in Gibraltar, with an 11/10 pay-out ensured should any of those three scorelines cop.
Stats and trends
Ireland won 4-0 on their last ‘away’ day against Gibraltar in Portugal – one of only seven competitive away triumphs over the past seven years. The other victims were Wales, Austria, Moldova, Georgia, Faroe Islands and Kazakhstan and you have to go back to 1996 for the last time an Irish side scored more than four goals away from home.
Gibraltar pocketed two famous Nations League wins against Armenia and Liechtenstein, but their qualification matches have delivered W0-D0-L20. On home soil, the hosts have lost all 10 outings – managing to net twice, with five sides scoring more than five goals. However, Germany, Poland and Belgium would be expected to run riot, whilst Scotland scored twice in the final five minutes.