GERMANY may miss out on top spot in the group, but can they pinch second place? Lucas Swain (@LucasSwain95) previews their encounter against South Korea in Kazan and picks out his best bets.
Germany v South Korea | Wednesday 27th June 2018, 15:00 | BBC
Well, what an exciting match the Germany v Sweden game was. I think mostly every punter in the world was siding with Germany one way or another and it was looking like it was going to be another case of underachievement for the Germans.
Toni Kroos was having an exceptionally poor match for the Germans, gifting away possession for Sweden to capitalise and take forward to score, and simply misplacing a number of passes. However, the headlines for the match soon changed.
It takes a world class player to score a decisive goal so late in such a big stage when the pressure is on. Cristiano Ronaldo proved he is capable of doing it against Spain and Toni Kroos joined his company with the late winner against the Swedes.
Last 16 bound?
When looking at the final group matches you have to think of the group permutations as it can make a huge difference in how one team approaches the match.
It’s fair to work on the premise that Mexico will avoid defeat against Sweden, although I certainly wouldn’t suggest it’s a formality. Therefore, the Germans are likely to attack this match regardless of the situation.
I certainly underestimate the ability of Mexico before this tournament despite knowing some of their dangers. However, South Korea are certainly not one of the sides who can fall into the underestimate bracket.
Get in my Son
As highlighted in the WeLoveBetting magazine preview and my first article on this group, whether South Korea dance is down to Son. His fantastic goal against Mexico reminded the group of his quality but on his own it’s not enough.
There’s every chance the Asian side head back without a point and they really need to evaluate their side if they want to register at least a win at Qatar 2022.
They task for them now is cause the biggest upset the World Cup has witnessed in 70 years and send Germany packing in the group stages, but I think even the most ardent South Korean will concede this is beyond them.
The betting angle
The bookmakers are, as you’d expect, well aware of Germany’s dominance and the group permutations. Whilst they did lose to Mexico and struggle against Sweden, both of these sides lived a charmed life as the Germans battered their goal.
This goes part of the way of explaining the Asian Handicap line, which at this time of writing is set at +/- 2. That is far too high for my liking, so we’re going to look elsewhere.
There’s nothing in this match which jumps out at me, to be honest. However, I think I’m going to side with a market that let me down versus Sweden but I have faith should land against South Korea.
My bet for this one is Germany to beat the South Koreans to nil at 6/4 with Ladbrokes.
Germany v South Korea – Germany win to nil (6/4 Ladbrokes)