ANOTHER profitable weekend for Mark O’Haire’s (@MarkOHaire) Football League fancies. He’s lined up three more from Tuesday’s busy card.
QPR v Sheffield Wednesday | Tuesday 19.45
Ahh QPR! Where do I start? In fact, I won’t bother as I’ll be here until after Christmas writing a monstrous novel on how and where we’ve gone wrong. So I’ll cover a few key elements behind a bet this midweek.
10BET, the lovely fellows, are offering Both Teams To Score at 10/13 for the visit of Sheffield Wednesday – in decimal terms, that’s 1.77and so not far off a 4/5 shot. And I’ve no idea why…
Saturday’s 2-1 defeat at Birmingham once again thrust our defensive shortcomings into the limelight and saw the pressure building on Chris Ramsey increase further. Away supporters barracked the boss and with the club bringing in former manager Neil Warnock in an advisory role, you wonder if the current number one has a short-term (let alone medium-term) future at Loftus Road.
Another poor result in W12 on Tuesday night will only hasten that departure and with right-back James Perch suspended, Rangers’ defensive woes are unlikely to be solved. Centre-half Gabriele Angella remains a doubt making it nigh-on impossible to have faith in the Hoops keeping Wednesday at bay.
QPR have kept a solitary clean sheet this season and conceded at least twice in 9/11 (82%) of Championship outings since relegation. It’s mind-bogglingly awful. On the flip-side, Rangers have netted in all bar two and that’s led to a strong 8/11 (73%) BTTS record.
As for the Owls, Carlos Carvahal’s men put in a decent shift against Hull at Hillsborough in what was probably best described as a game of two halves. Still, Wednesday continued their newfound attacking approach under the Portuguese coach and have now notched in 10 of their 11 league encounters this term.
Throw in the away side’s two clean sheets and their 9/11 (82%) tally of Both Teams To Score winners and the stats would suggest odds far, far shorter than 10/13. Having won in 17/22 (77%) in the two teams' combined matches, you don’t need to many words or explanation to realise we’re getting humongous BTTS value from this first selection.
Gillingham v Scunthorpe | Tuesday 19.45
Oh look! It’s Gillingham, again. Yes, the Gills, like Morecambe, are becoming a bit of an obsessional betting proposition, for me. Justin Edinburgh’s men failed to bag us a Both Teams To Score bet at Crewe on Saturday, thus denying the Football League treble, but there’s plenty of stats and trends in favour of our Tuesday choice.
I shouldn’t need to remind you about the Gills’ excellent efforts at the Priestfield under Edinburgh (W9-D3-L2) and at 21/20 (Bet365), they’ll certainly have their backers this midweek. I wouldn’t want to oppose those quotes on the Kent club but instead, I’m taking up Coral’s 19/20 on a different option.
Gillingham have W8-D1-L0 in their last nine starts in front of their home supporters and Edinburgh’s troops have scored at least twice in five of their six League One fixtures as hosts this term. Only Morecambe (28) have managed more league goals than the Gills (26) in English league football with 17 of those being plundered at the Priestfield.
Since the start of last season, Gillingham have scored Over 1.5 Goals in 18/29 (62%) home matches and they’re welcoming a Scunthorpe side that’s conceded two or more goals in each of their last 15 road trips (W1-D4-L10). Since the Iron returned to the third tier, they’ve leaked at least two goals in 21/29 (72%), making the 19/20 (Coral) that Gillingham enhance that record look outstanding.
Sure, Scunny have won their last three on the spin but their last away day was a 4-2 success at Oldham and Mark Robins’ men have been beaten in six of their last seven at top-six teams with five losses by at least a two-goal margin.
Taking purely the stats from both sides’ respective home/away records since the start of 2014/15, we should be looking at a 67% chance of a repeat. If we turned that percentage expectancy into odds, this 19/20 shot should be closer to 1/2 Value.
Accrington v AFC Wimbledon | Tuesday 19.45
John Coleman, what a guy. To have Accrington in the top-six and just two points off automatic promotion after a quarter of the season, he deserves some bloody recognition.
Working under the league’s smallest budget, lowest average attendances and with last season’s worst defence, Coleman continues to pull rabbits from hats to keep Stanley punching well above their weight.
Accy’s 1-0 weekend reverse away at table-topping Plymouth didn’t do the Lancastrians justice as Coleman’s charges twice rattled the woodwork and were arguably the better team for large swathes. Back at their Crown Ground home, Stanley can get back to winning ways against a Wimbledon side thumped 5-2 at home to Morecambe.
As well as boasting a far superior head-to-head record against the Dons (W6-D1-L1 including W4/4 at home), the hosts have W5-D3-L1 in their last nine outings in front of their home supporters. And since Coleman returned to the club, Accrington can boast a solid W11-D7-L7 return from Crown Ground fixtures.
So why on earth are they as big as 10/11 (William Hill) in the Draw No Bet market? Answers on a postcard, please. Stanley have W4-D1-L0 when taking on bottom-half dwellers this season and as well as that hammering at home to Morecambe, Wimbledon have W0-D3-L4 when battling top-half teams this term.
Throw in the Dons’ sole success in 18 games away from Kingsmeadow and their poor W5-D11-L13 return from road trips since the start of last season and you really have to question the wisdom in pricing up Stanley at such attractive odds.
Accrington have won 45% of their home league fixtures since the start of last season – Wimbledon have lost 45% of their away days from the same sample. That should make the home side around a 6/5 play to deliver maximum points but 17/10 (Bet365) is on offer.
I’ll play it safe my covering the draw at almost even-money with the 10/11 (William Hill) on Accy DNB a real steal.
Best Bets
QPR v Sheffield Wednesday – Both Teams To Score (10/13 10Bet)
Gillingham v Scunthorpe – Gillingham to score Over 1.5 Goals (19/20 Coral)
Accrington v AFC Wimbledon – Accrington Stanley draw no bet (10/11 William Hill)
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