MARK O’HAIRE (@MarkOHaire) shares his betting thoughts from Tuesday night’s Football League card.
Leeds v Wolves | Tuesday 19.45
Apologies for the rather compact piece for Tuesday night’s card – I’ve not had time to give the Football League a full review and analysis over the past few days as I’ve been away. So here’s a brief look at a few value punts from the Both Teams To Score market on Tuesday night…
Neither Leeds nor Wolves are going anywhere fast but I don’t expect either to slack off completely, knowing the two managers in charge.
For Leeds, Steve Evans is a stickler for hard work and effort and his Whites brigade have shown flashes of quality in the past month but their maddening inconsistencies – particular at Elland Road – has halted progress.
The Yorkshire giants have claimed just six wins in 21 (29%) outings in front of their home supporters – only four Championship clubs can boast a worst return as hosts. Leeds have kept their sheets clean in only four of those fixtures but found the back of the net on 15 occasions – two strong BTTS trends.
It’s now seven games since the Whites shutout any opposition side with their most recent six recording winning Both Teams To Score bets. In fact, both teams have found the back of the net in the last five at Elland Road, as well in 12/21 (57%) of this season’s encounters as hosts.
Wolves have been incredibly bland for the majority of the campaign but their W2-D4-L1 recent record saw Kenny Jackett’s side see off struggling MK Dons and Bristol City but fall to defeat last time out against promotion-chasing Hull.
Against the Tigers, Jackett was forced to field a youthful defensive set-up but Danny Batth’s return from illness should ensure there’s a little more experience in the backline. Nevertheless, Wolves have kept just five clean sheets on their travels this term, scoring in 15 of their 21 games as guests.
Both Teams To Score has proven profitable in four of Wolves’ last six away trips, as well as in 12/21 (57%) all season. So with the last four meetings between these two teams yielding 19 goals and a 100% BTTS success rate, I’m certainly interested in a repeat.
If we took the duos 57% winning Both Teams To Score rate this term and turned that percentage chance into implied odds, we’d be looking at a 3/4 shot. Therefore, I’m more than happy to get involved with 10/11 quotes from William Hill here.
Scunthorpe v Bury | Tuesday 19.45
Scunthorpe haven’t yet given up the ghost of a top-six finish thanks to a W8-D6-L2 return since mid-January. The Iron are six points off the play-off positions but their 3-2 away success at Crewe on Saturday made it three wins from four.
Graham Alexander was appointed five games ago and said he’s been pleased with the on-field progress at Glanford Park ahead of Tuesday night’s tussle with Bury. United have come much more difficult to beat since sacking Mark Robins in January.
Scunny have averaged just under 2.00 points-per-game during their 16-match streak with only leaders Wigan Athletic, Barnsley and Bradford picking up more points than the Iron during that spell. The hosts are now unbeaten in 10 (W5-D5-L0) on home soil and will fancy their chances of extending that run here.
Having been up and around the top six for the first third of the campaign, Bury have fallen into the bottom half of the table and were probably starting to looking anxiously over their shoulders as recently as a month ago, when they were only nine points above the bottom four.
One defeat in six games though has given them a bit of momentum and on Saturday the Shakers were 1-0 winners at Swindon to become mathematically safe from the drop. However, the County Ground success was only Bury's second away win in 14 matches.
I was tempted to have a wee wager on the home win ‘to nil’ but at 9/5 (Paddy Power) and Leon Clarke lurking in the opposition XI, I’m happy to leave it alone and instead plump for the 7/8 from Marathon on opposing Both Teams To Score.
Scunthorpe have recorded clean sheets in six of their last eight on home soil, making it 11 shutouts in 21 (52%) this term. The Iron have seen just 5/21 (24%) of home fixtures featuring both sides scoring with Bury similarly poor on their travels for goal-filled games.
The Shakers have fired blanks in eight of their 21 (38%) of their games as guests with only 9/21 (43%) banking in the BTTS column. Putting the two teams’ home/away Both Teams To Score returns together and finding the average – 33.5% – suggests implied odds of 2/1 for BTTS to succeed here.
But flip the selection on its head and with a 66.5% probability opposing BTTS and implied odds of 1/2 on Both Teams To Score ‘No’ – 7/8 offers real value.
York v Portsmouth | Tuesday 19.45
York are going down and despite the negative results, Jackie McNamara’s men have shown a decent degree of fight in recent weeks.
On Saturday for example, the Minstermen lost 2-1 at Hartlepool but trailed 1-0 and were down to10 men after 35 minutes, managing to pull the scores level before half-time. A goal in the final 20 minutes for Pools denied York a point and appears to have sealed their fate.
However, McNamara has been adamant his team have been capable of handing out a shellacking sooner rather than later with the northerners profligate finishing hampering their survival hopes.
Against the league’s best defence on Tuesday night, York will need to be at their best to grab a goal but I believe they’re still more than capable of doing so and I'm keen to take Both Teams To Score at 22/23 (888).
It’s a selection that’s won in 29/42 (69%) of the home team’s outings, including a stupendous 18/21 (86%) of their Bootham Crescent encounters. The hosts hold the league’s leakiest defence – 78 goals conceded – but have only been shutout once all season when welcoming League Two opposition.
Portsmouth let a 1-0 lead slip in the final five minutes of their match against Plymouth on Saturday and so Paul Cook’s charges look set for a play-off push. Despite shipping fewer goals than any divisional rival, Pompey have had a knack for conceding on the road.
The south-coast visitors have only kept three clean sheets in 20 road trips this term – further back it’s five in 37 league matches – but the visitors have netted in 18 of their away days. So no surprise to see Both Teams To Score bank in an exceptionally strong 16/20 (80%).
Putting the two teams’ exceptional home/away trends together, we get an average success rate of 83% in the BTTS market and implied odds of just 1/5. Forget the situation surrounding York, the 22/23 on offer is ridiculously good value and worth a decent wager.
I’m also going to have an interest in a Portsmouth win and Both Teams To Score at 5/2 (Bet365) – York have picked up a solitary point from 13 (W0-D1-L12) against League Two’s top third. Interestingly, nine of those matches produced BTTS winners and a huge total of 47 goals.
Best Bets
Leeds v Wolves – Both Teams To Score (10/11 William Hill)
Scunthorpe v Bury – Both Teams To Score ‘No’ (7/8 Marathon)
York v Portsmouth – Both Teams To Score (22/23 888)
York v Portsmouth – Portsmouth to win and Both Teams To Score (5/2 Bet365)
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