Football League: Three goal-filled EFL games to follow

FOOTBALL LEAGUE expert Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) has made us a mint in the EFL this season. Here's his three to follow from a depleted weekend card.

Season Update

With a massively depleted Football League coupon, finding real value has been a bit of a task this weekend – blame the FA Cup.

So for one week only, I thought I’d chance my arm at three Both Teams To Score selections – they make-up a 4/1 treble.

Meanwhile, I’m regularly hounded on Twitter for P&L and ROI figures and whilst we aim to keep WeLoveBetting fun, informative and engaging, I thought I’d share my mid-term results from the Football League with you here.

My Saturday EFL columns have returned an overall +11.38 profit thus far and a 13% ROI. Seventeen (71%) of the 24 columns have made money with six (25%) bagging full houses – only two (8%) have failed to land at least one winner.

I’m pretty pleased with those figures and I hope you are too. Here’s hoping the good form continues in 2017…

Bristol Rovers v Northampton | Saturday 15:00

Bristol Rovers

• Bristol Rovers have W4-D1-L6 since the end of October, scoring in 8/11 and keeping only 2/11 clean sheets.
• Bristol Rovers have W7-D3-L3 at home this season, scoring in 12/13 but keeping only 2/13 clean sheets.
• Bristol Rovers have seen 23/25 league games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 17/25 league games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 19/25 bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Bristol Rovers have seen 12/13 home games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 10/13 home games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 11/13 bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Bristol Rovers have scored in 20/25 league games and kept only 3/25 clean sheets.
• Bristol Rovers have scored 2+ goals in 8/13 at home but also conceded 2+ goals in 5/13 at home – only Rochdale and Scunthorpe have scored more home goals.
• Bristol Rovers have seen Over 2.5 Goals in 6/8 home matches against bottom-half teams – 4 of those games featured Over 3.5 Goals.
• Bristol Rovers’ matches are averaging 3.36 goals per-game, and 3.31 goals per-game at home this season.
• Bristol Rovers’ total expected goals across their 25 matches sits at 3.11 per-game.
• Bristol Rovers have centre-back Ryan Hartley injured.
• With Both Teams To Score winning in 19/26 (74%) collective home/away games the implied odds of a repeat are about the 4/11 mark.

Northampton

• Northampton have W4-D1-L10 since September, scoring in 10/15 and keeping only 1/15 clean sheets.
• Northampton have W4-D4-L5 away this season, scoring in 9/13 but keeping only 2/13 clean sheets.
• Northampton have seen 18/25 league games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 13/25 league games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 15/25 bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Northampton have seen 9/13 away games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 6/13 away games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 8/13 bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Northampton have scored in 18/25 league games and kept only 5/25 clean sheets.
• Northampton’s matches are averaging 2.84 goals per-game, and 2.62 goals per-game away this season.
• Northampton’s total expected goals across their 25 matches sits at 2.84 per-game.
• Only Shrewsbury and Chesterfield are conceding more shots per-game than Northampton.
• With Both Teams To Score winning in 19/26 (74%) collective home/away games the implied odds of a repeat are about the 4/11 mark.

Back Both Teams To Score (4/6 Bet365)

Southend v Sheffield United | Saturday 15:00

Southend

• Southend have W8-D7-L1 since the end of September, scoring in 13/16.
• Southend have W6-D5-L2 at home this season, scoring in 12/13 but keeping only 3/13 clean sheets.
• Southend have seen 22/25 league games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 12/25 league games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 12/25 bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Southend have seen 12/13 home games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 6/13 home games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 9/13 bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Southend have scored in 18/25 league games and kept only 8/25 clean sheets.
• Southend’s matches are averaging 2.56 goals per-game, and 2.62 goals per-game at home this season.
• Southend’s total expected goals across their 25 matches sits at 2.96 per-game.
• With Both Teams To Score winning in 19/25 (76%) collective home/away games the implied odds of a repeat are about the 1/3 mark.

Sheffield United

• Sheffield United have W16-D4-L1 since the end of August, scoring in 20/21.
• Sheffield United have W6-D4-L2 away this season, scoring in 11/12 but keeping only 1/12 clean sheets.
• Sheffield United have seen 19/25 league games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 15/25 league games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 14/25 bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Sheffield United have seen 11/12 away games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 9/12 away games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 10/12 bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Sheffield United have scored in 22/25 league games and kept only 8/25 clean sheets.
• Sheffield United have scored 2+ goals in 8/12 away but also conceded 2+ goals in 4/12 away this season.
• Sheffield United’s matches are averaging 2.80 goals per-game, and 3.41 goals per-game away this season.
• Sheffield United’s total expected goals across their 25 matches sits at 2.66 per-game.
• Only Oxford are averaging more shots per-game than Sheffield United this season.
• With Both Teams To Score winning in 19/25 (76%) collective home/away games the implied odds of a repeat are about the 1/3 mark.

Back Both Teams To Score (10/11 Bet365)

Colchester v Carlisle | Saturday 15:00

Colchester

• Colchester have W6-D1-L0 since switching to a 3-5-2 formation in mid-November, scoring in 6/7.
• Colchester have W6-D2-L3 at home this season, scoring in 9/11 and keeping 4/11 clean sheets.
• Colchester have seen 20/24 league games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 12/24 league games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 12/24 bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Colchester have seen 10/11 home games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 8/11 home games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 6/11 bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Colchester have scored in 18/24 league games and kept 8/24 clean sheets. Colchester have scored 2+ goals in 8/11 at home but also conceded 2+ goals in 6/11 at home.
• Colchester’s matches are averaging 2.71 goals per-game, and 3.27 goals per-game at home this season.
• Colchester’s total expected goals across their 25 matches sits at 2.53 per-game.
• With Both Teams To Score winning in 15/23 (65%) collective home/away games the implied odds of a repeat are about the 8/15 mark.

Carlisle

• Carlisle have W12-D10-L2 this season, scoring in 23/24 but haven’t kept a clean sheet in 12 games.
• Carlisle have W4-D7-L1 away this season, scoring in 11/12 but keeping only 2/12 clean sheets.
• Carlisle have seen 21/24 league games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 14/24 league games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 18/24 bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Carlisle have seen 11/12 away games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 7/12 away games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 9/12 bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Carlisle have scored in 23/24 league games and kept only 5/24 clean sheets.
• Carlisle have scored 2+ goals in 7/12 away but also conceded 2+ goals in 6/12 away this season.
• Carlisle’s matches are averaging 3.17 goals per-game, and 3.00 goals per-game away this season.
• Carlisle’s total expected goals across their 25 matches sits at 3.23 per-game.
• Only Morecambe are facing more shots away from home per-game than Carlisle.
• With Both Teams To Score winning in 15/23 (65%) collective home/away games the implied odds of a repeat are about the 8/15 mark.

Back Both Teams To Score (10/11 Bet365)

Best Bets

Bristol Rovers v Northampton – Both Teams To Score (4/6 Bet365)

Southend v Sheffield United – Both Teams To Score (10/11 Bet365)

Colchester v Carlisle – Both Teams To Score (8/13 188BET)

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