FOOTBALL LEAGUE analyst Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) returns with his best bets from Good Friday's EFL action.
Birmingham v Derby | Friday 19th April 2019, 15:00 | Sky Sports
- Birmingham have lost only 5/21 at St Andrew’s this season, whilst under Garry Monk’s watch the Blues have only been beaten in 6/27 at home (W11-D10-L6).
- Birmingham have beaten Leeds and held Sheffield United in their most recent two outings on home soil and boast a W4-D3-L3 return against top-half teams this term.
- Birmingham have conceded the fifth-fewest shots from inside the penalty area in the Championship this season and are rated mid-table across a range of key performance data metrics.
- Derby have won just 6/20 Championship games since December’s international break and have W0-D3-L4 in their 7 away days in 2019, failing to score in 5/7 away.
- Derby have won only 6/20 away Championship outings under Frank Lampard, recording only two clean sheets. The Rams have W2-D4-L6 at sides in 11th and below.
- Derby are ranked no higher than 15th in any of the major performance data metrics and have generated the fifth-lowest xG figure on the road. Just five sides average fewer shots from inside the penalty area than the Rams.
Back Birmingham +0 on the Asian Handicap at 9/10 (Unibet).
Burton v Portsmouth | Friday 19th April 2019, 15:00 | Sky Sports
- Only Luton can better Burton’s Expected Goals (xG) ratio over the last 8 games in League One with the Brewers boasting a 64% share during their W5-D2-L1 run (scoring 18 goals).
- Burton have scored 32 goals – at an average of 1.52 per-game – at home. The Brewers have generated 1.40 xG at the Pirelli, scoring in 17/21 and notching in all seven meetings with the top-10 in the division here.
- Burton have fired in the fourth-most shots from inside the penalty area this season and just five sides have returned a larger xG from open play figure.
- Burton have seen 24/42 (57%) matches feature Both Teams To Score, including 12/21 (57%) at the Pirelli. Four of their five showdowns with the top-seven paid out for BTTS backers.
- Portsmouth have W6-D0-L1 – scoring 20 goals – to put themselves back into the League One automatic promotion mix.
- Portsmouth have W21-D7-L3 when excluding the top-six, scoring in all bar three of 31 fixtures and netting at least twice on 21 occasions.
- Portsmouth’s away days have averaged 3.10 goals per-game with 16/21 (76%) producing profitable Both Teams To Score selections. Pompey have kept just four clean sheets away and scored in all bar two of their 21 road trips.
- Portsmouth have generated the second-best xG figure in League One and third-highest xG from open play return. Pompey also average the third-most shots from inside the box.
Back Both Teams To Score at 5/6 (Sportingbet).
Cheltenham v Oldham | Friday 19th April 2019, 15:00
- Cheltenham have W12-D10-L13 under the stewardship of Mike Duff although the Robins have excelled at Whaddon Road in this sample, picking up W9-D6-L3 under Duff.
- Cheltenham have averaged 1.83 points per-game on home soil under Duff – the seventh best record in that time. Since November, the Robins have W9-D5-L0 at home.
- Cheltenham have W8-D2-L1 when welcoming clubs in 12th and below – scoring at least twice in 7/10, as well as W13-D4-L5 when including away days at the same opposition.
- Cheltenham boast a 63% Expected Goals (xG) ratio from their last 8 encounters (W3-D3-L2) – the third-best in League Two – and restricted Lincoln to 0.36 xG at Sincil Bank last week.
- Only 7 clubs have generated a better xG average on home soil this season with Cheltenham producing an xG figure over 2.00 in half of their last 10 at Whaddon Road.
- Oldham have W3-D1-L0 since Paul Scholes resigned despite conceding 59 shots in games against Swindon, Colchester, Tranmere and Grimsby.
- Oldham have won only 6/20 away games this season and the Latics have conceded 1.52 xG per-game on average on the road. Only four clubs have landed fewer on-target shots away.
- Just 4 League Two sides have generated a lower xG from open play figure than Oldham’s 0.70 average and only 4 teams have fired in fewer shots from inside the box this season.
- Oldham have W12-D4-L4 against teams below them this season but are too short around 9/5 for a tricky trip on Good Friday.
Best Bets
Birmingham v Derby – Birmingham +0 Asian Handicap (9/10 Unibet)
Burton v Portsmouth – Both Teams To Score (5/6 Sportingbet)
Cheltenham v Oldham – Cheltenham +0 Asian Handicap (9/10 BetVictor)
