FOOTBALL LEAGUE analyst Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) returns with his best bets from Saturday's EFL action.
Hull v QPR | Saturday 16th March 2019, 15:00
- Hull have W7-D2-L0 of their last 9 at the KCOM Stadium, generating 1.70 Expected Goals (xG) on average.
- Exclude the top-10 and Hull have W8-D1-L1 at the KCOM Stadium this season, scoring Over 1.5 Goals in 9 of those 10 outings.
- Hull have scored Over 1.5 Goals in 14 of their last 18 Championship matches.
- Hull have averaged 1.55 xG at home and 0.94 xG from open play per-game this season.
- QPR have W1-D3-L9 in their last 13 games, conceding Over 1.5 Goals in 9/13 matches.
- QPR have lost 10/18 away outings, including losing each of their last five trips, conceding Over 1.5 Goals in 10/18 away.
- Exclude the bottom-five and QPR have W1-D3-L9 away, conceding Over 1.5 Goals in 8/13 away.
- QPR concede 1.46 xG per-game away and have given up 0.92 xG from open play.
Back Hull to win and Over 1.5 Goals at 33/20 (Ladbrokes).
Bury v Cambridge | Saturday 16th March 2019, 15:00
- Bury enjoyed a midweek off and come into this game having W9-D3-L0 in their last 12 matches, and have W8-D2-L0 in their last 10 at Gigg Lane.
- Bury have W19-D9-L4 since September, scoring in 28/34 matches and netting at least twice in 20 of those 34 games.
- Bury have scored at least twice in 13 of their 18 home fixtures, averaging 2.50 goals per-game and 1.85 Expected Goals (xG) at home.
- Bury have an almost fully fit squad to select from.
- Bury are ranked in the top-three for shots in the box, xG and xG from open play ratio.
- Cambridge have W4-D2-L12 away from home, conceding at least twice in 9/18 and shipping 1.89 goals per-game away on average.
- Cambridge have scored just four goals in their last eight games, failing to net in 5/8.
Bury -0.75 on the Asian Handicap is 5/6 (BetVictor).
Oldham v Tranmere | Saturday 16th March 2019, 15:00
- Oldham saw Paul Scholes surprisingly resign on Thursday having W0-D3-L3 in his 6 games in charge – the Latics generated just 4.04 Expected Goals (xG) in that run, giving up 11.31 xG.
- Oldham have only won 8 of their last 29 League Two tussles,
- Oldham have W5-D5-L5 in their last 15 Boundary Park outings, and returning a negative xG ratio record at home this season.
- Oldham have kept only 3 home clean sheets this season and won 1 of 19 games against teams above them in the league table.
- Oldham have Jose Baxter suspended.
- Tranmere have won each of their last 5 and have now taken 19 points from their last 24 available in League Two.
- Tranmere are ranked in the top-five for both xG and xG from open play ratio.
- Tranmere have W3-D2-L1 away in their last 6 games, only losing at Mansfield.
- Tranmere have only lost 4 of 21 matches against the bottom-half and lost only 3 of 14 games away at teams outside of the top-seven.
- Tranmere have scored in 15 of 18 away matches, scoring at least twice in 9 of 14 trips to teams outside the top-seven.
Tranmere +0.50 Asian Handicap is 4/5 (BetVictor).
Best Bets
Hull v QPR – Hull to win and Over 1.5 Goals (33/20 Ladbrokes)
Bury v Cambridge – Bury-0.75 Asian Handicap (5/6 BetVictor)
Oldham v Tranmere – Tranmere +0.50 Asian Handicap (4/5 BetVictor)
